Analysis and Assessments

Plant Species and Climate Profile Predictions

Overview

Maps of forest species-climate profiles were developed to help predict how forests, plant communities, and species may change on the landscape in response to climate change. Each species map depicts a ‘viability score’, which is an index on the interval zero to one that indicates how consistent the climate at a location is with the contemporary occurrence of a species. A low score at a given point in time or space indicates that the species does not occur (or very rarely occurs) in climates like those depicted at that location.

Summary: 

These maps provide information on where suitable future climate may be located for specific tree species under different climate scenarios.

Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings

In these collected papers, leading scientists, resource managers and policy specialists explore the implications of climate change and other manifestations of the Anthropocene on the management of wildlife habitat, biodiversity, water, and other resources, with particular attention to the effects of wildfire. Recommendations include the need for a supporting institutional, legal, and policy framework that is not just different but more dynamic, to facilitate resource management adaptation and preparedness in a period of accelerating environmental change.

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the North Cascades Region, Washington

The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) is a science-management partnership that has worked with numerous stakeholders over 2 years to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the North Cascades, and to find solutions that will help the diverse ecosystems of this region transition into a warmer climate. The NCAP provided education, conducted a climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed adaptation options for federal agencies that manage 2.4 million hectares in north-central Washington.

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. Over 40 managers and researchers contributed to this report from the Climate Change Response Framework, from various federal, state, tribal, non-profit, academic, and private organizations.

Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Minnesota to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and impacts to forest ecosystems was considered in order to draw conclusions on climate change vulnerability.

Forest adaptation resources: climate change tools and approaches for land managers

This document provides a collection of resources designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise adaptation tactics. It was developed in northern Wisconsin as part of the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project and contains information from assessments, partnership efforts, workshops, and collaborative work between scientists and managers.

Evaluating landscape level sensitivity to changing peak and low streamflow regimes

Pacific Northwest Research Station
Research Partners: 
Oregon State University, FS Region 6
Principal Investigator(s): 
Gordon Grant, Mohammad Safeeq, Brian Staab
Summary: 

Changes in timing and magnitudes of streamflows under climate change pose significant risks to ecosystems, infrastructure, and overall availability of water for human use. We have developed a spatial analysis that predicts how both peak (winter) and low (summer) streamflows are likely to change in the future for Oregon and Washington. This set of spatial tools gives land managers a full toolbox with which to anticipate and plan for streamflow changes on forest lands.

Project Abstract: 

See more below

Project Status: 
Action
Research Results: 

A geohydrologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA - http://www.fsl.orst.edu/wpg/pubs/14_Safeeqetal_HESS_discussion.pdf

Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/23/2014

Climate change interactions with landscape vegetation and disturbance trends on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest, Arizona

Pacific Northwest Research Station
Research Partners: 
Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest
Principal Investigator(s): 
Miles Hemstrom
Summary: 

This project was a pilot effort to construct climate-connected state and transition models for a large landscape in eastern central Arizona. The objective was to use state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project and Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs from the model MC1 to construct and test the modeling approach.

Project Status: 
Complete
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and forest management effects in the Lower Joseph project area, northeastern Oregon

Pacific Northwest Research Station
Research Partners: 
Oregon State University, Wallowa-Whitman & Umatilla National Forests
Principal Investigator(s): 
David Seesholtz
Summary: 

This project will use climate-connected state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project to assist with cumulative effects analysis of alternative management scenarios for the Lower Joseph project area in the Blue Mountains of Northeast Oregon. The objective is to use the climate-connected state and transition models to evaluate alternative scenarios proposed by local land managers and collaborative groups given possible climate change impacts.

Project Status: 
Action
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and Greater Sage-grouse habitat interactions in southeastern Oregon

Pacific Northwest Research Station
Research Partners: 
Portland State University, USGS Climate Center
Principal Investigator(s): 
Megan Creutzberg
Summary: 

This project will connect state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project with Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs for Southeastern Oregon. The objective is to develop a set of vegetation modeling tools that can be used by local land managers and collaborative groups to examine potential rangeland management scenarios and interactions with possible climate change impacts.

Project Status: 
Action
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014
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