Analysis and Assessments

Climate change interactions with landscape vegetation and disturbance trends on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest, Arizona

Contact First Name: 
Miles
Contact Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Principal Investigator(s): 
Miles Hemstrom
Research Partners: 
Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

This project was a pilot effort to construct climate-connected state and transition models for a large landscape in eastern central Arizona. The objective was to use state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project and Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs from the model MC1 to construct and test the modeling approach.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Southwestern Region (R3)
Arizona
Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest
Project Status: 
Complete
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and forest management effects in the Lower Joseph project area, northeastern Oregon

Contact First Name: 
Miles
Contact Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Contact 2 First Name: 
David
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Seesholtz
Principal Investigator(s): 
David Seesholtz
Research Partners: 
Oregon State University, Wallowa-Whitman & Umatilla National Forests
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

This project will use climate-connected state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project to assist with cumulative effects analysis of alternative management scenarios for the Lower Joseph project area in the Blue Mountains of Northeast Oregon. The objective is to use the climate-connected state and transition models to evaluate alternative scenarios proposed by local land managers and collaborative groups given possible climate change impacts.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Umatilla National Forest
Wallowa-Whitman National Forest
Project Status: 
Action
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and Greater Sage-grouse habitat interactions in southeastern Oregon

Contact First Name: 
Megan
Contact Last Name: 
Creutzberg
Contact 2 First Name: 
Miles
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Principal Investigator(s): 
Megan Creutzberg
Research Partners: 
Portland State University, USGS Climate Center
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

This project will connect state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project with Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs for Southeastern Oregon. The objective is to develop a set of vegetation modeling tools that can be used by local land managers and collaborative groups to examine potential rangeland management scenarios and interactions with possible climate change impacts.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Project Status: 
Action
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and forest management interactions in southwestern Oregon

Contact First Name: 
Emilie
Contact Last Name: 
Henderson
Contact 2 First Name: 
Miles
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Principal Investigator(s): 
Emilie Henderson
Research Partners: 
Oregon State University, USGS Climate Center
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

This project will connect state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project with Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs for Southwestern Oregon. The objective is to develop a set of vegetation modeling tools that can be used by local land managers and collaborative groups to examine potential forest management scenarios and interactions with possible climate change impacts.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Project Status: 
Planning
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and management interactions for forests in the central Oregon Cascades

Contact First Name: 
Miles
Contact Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Contact 2 First Name: 
Jessica
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Halofsky
Principal Investigator(s): 
Miles Hemstrom
Research Partners: 
Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Oregon State University, Institute for Natural Resources, US Forest Service
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

Computer simulation models are often used to project vegetation responses to changing CO2 (carbon dioxide) and climate. We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure.

Project Abstract: 

See more below

Research Results: 

Our results suggest that: (1) legacy effects incorporated in state-and-transition models realistically dampen climate change effects on vegetation; (2) species-specific response to fire built into state-and transition models can result in increased resistance to climate change, as was the case for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, or increased sensitivity to climate change, as was the case for some shrublands and grasslands in the study area; and (3) vegetation could remain relatively stable in the short term, then shift rapidly as a consequence of increased disturbance such as wildfire and altered environmental conditions. Managers and other land stewards can use results from our linked models to better anticipate potential climate-induced shifts in local vegetation and resulting effects on wildlife habitat.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Project Status: 
Complete
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Forestry, Bioenergy, Greenhouse Gas and Land Use Economic and Biophysical Model Development and Analysis

Contact First Name: 
David
Contact Last Name: 
Seesholtz
Contact 2 First Name: 
Greg
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Latta
Principal Investigator(s): 
Greg Latta
Research Partners: 
Environmental Protection Agency, Oregon State University
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Climate Economics Branch (CEB) analyzes cost-effective strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both in the U.S. and internationally. EPA relies on the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gas (FASOM-GHG) model for analysis of GHG mitigation from the U.S. forest, agriculture and bioenergy sectors. This project will involve model development, results interpretation, testing, analyses, and documentation associated with the forestry and bioenergy sectors and related land use in the FASOM-GHG. The overarching objectives of the project are to make the forest sector portion more flexible, able to simulate a broader range of alternative bioenergy and CO2 sequestration policies, and to simplify the basic model code to reduce compilation and run time.

Project Abstract: 

The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Climate Economics Branch (CEB) analyzes cost-effective strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both in the U.S. and internationally. EPA relies on the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gas (FASOM-GHG) model for analysis of GHG mitigation from the U.S. forest, agriculture and bioenergy sectors. The model is developed and maintained by the FASOM-GHG team, with expert members at Texas A&M University, Oregon State University, the Nicholas Institute at Duke University, Research Triangle Institute, Electric Power Research Institute, Environmental Protection Agency, USDA and the U.S. Forest Service.

Expected Outcomes: 

1. Contribute to Development and Testing of the FASOM-GHG Modeling System, including Model Version Comparisons and Support for Continued Refinement of FASOM-GHG.
2. Preparation of FASOM-GHG documentation and related materials.

Geographic Region: 
International
United States
Alaska Region (R10)
Northern Region (R1)
Rocky Mountain Region (R2)
Southwestern Region (R3)
Intermountain Region (R4)
Pacific Southwest Region (R5)
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Southern Region (R8)
Eastern Region (R9)
Project Status: 
Action
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

National Climate Assessment 2014

This peer-reviewed report is a thorough and comprehensive overview of how climate change is expected to affect the United States. It includes analyses of impacts on seven sectors – human health, water, energy, transportation, agriculture, forests, and ecosystems. The report also assesses U.S. regional impacts and outlines some climate adaptation efforts.

Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula to a range of future climates. It is meant to provide a valuable platform for foresters in the region to incorporate climate change considerations into management and planning.

Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

More than 30 scientists and forest managers contributed to this report, which evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates.

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