David T. Price, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Daniel W. McKenney, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada; David P. Coulson, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, USA; R. Martin Siltanen, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Pia Papadopol, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada; Kevin Lawrence, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada
For the 2010 USDA Forest Service Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, a scenario-based approach is being used. A set of future U.S. scenarios, the RPA Scenarios, linked with IPCC global scenarios, provide a coherent interdependent future for population dynamics, socioeconomic factors and climate change, 50 years into the future. This project developed the historical and projected climate data set being used in concert with the socioeconomic data in resource models of forest condition, water supply/use projections, wildlife habitat, recreation participation, and amenity migration for the RPA Assessment.
In order to provide a diverse set of economic and population futures, the RPA scenarios were linked to the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B2, and data on U.S. populations and economic growth. Climate projections driven by these scenarios were available at the global spatial scale, too large a scale for assessing climate change effects in the RPA Assessment. Researchers from the USDA Forest Service and the Canadian Forest Service collaborated in the production of a suite of downscaled change factors to use in developing climate projections covering the continental United States and Canada. This project, also collaborative, developed the conterminous U.S. climate projections for the three scenarios (A1B, A2, and B2) and for each of three climate models. The A1B and A2 scenarios drive three climate models: CGCM3.1(T47), CSIRO-MK3.5(T63), and MIROC3.2(medres) from the Fourth IPCC Assessment. The B2 scenario drives the climate models CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2, and UKMO-HadCM3 used in the IPCC Third Assessment. The climate variables are: monthly total precipitation in millimeters (mm), monthly mean daily maximum air temperature in degrees Celsius (°C), and monthly mean daily minimum air temperature in degrees Celsius (°C). The downscaled change factors were used to develop nine future climate projections for the conterminous United States. Computed monthly mean daily potential evapotranspiration (mm) and mean grid elevation in meters (m) are also included in the data set. Downscaled climate data were developed for the period 1960-2100 at the 5 arcminute grid scale (approximately 9.25 km grid at the equator) for the conterminous United States. These data were also summarized to the U.S. county level. The development of this climate dataset creates a nationally consistent set of scenario-based climate projections for the RPA Assessment.
Joyce, Linda A.; Price, David T.; Coulson, David P.; McKenney, Daniel W.; Siltanen, R. Martin; Papadopol, Pia; Lawrence, Kevin. In review. Projecting Climate Change in the United States: A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service RPA 2010 Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-XXX. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.
Will climate change affect the forest productivity and the forest sector in the United States? The Forest Service conducts periodic assessments of the condition of forest and rangeland resources under the authority of the Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA). These periodic assessments synthesize and integrate the current state of scientific knowledge for policy discussions. Increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has raised concerns about the vulnerability of forest to the elevated carbon dioxide and potential changes in climate and climate variability. The Forest Service is mandated by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974 (as amended in 1990) to prepare a Renewable Resources Assessment to assess the impact of climate change on the condition of renewable resources on forests and rangelands, and to identify the rural and urban forestry opportunities to mitigate the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Since 1990, RMRS scientists have provided the technical analyses of climate change for the RPA assessments.