Oregon State University, Wallowa-Whitman & Umatilla National Forests
This project will use climate-connected state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project to assist with cumulative effects analysis of alternative management scenarios for the Lower Joseph project area in the Blue Mountains of Northeast Oregon. The objective is to use the climate-connected state and transition models to evaluate alternative scenarios proposed by local land managers and collaborative groups given possible climate change impacts.
The report provides an overview of ecological thresholds and where they are most likely to occur. It also identifies those areas where research is most needed to improve the understanding of these thresholds and suggests potential actions that land and resource managers could use to improve the resilience of the resources they manage to climate change.
For more than 15 years we have worked together with collaborators from other institutions to develop and apply methods to forecast landscape-scale forest change in response to tree growth and species succession as well as disturbance from timber harvest and fire. Much of this work has utilized the LANDIS model to forecast changes in forest conditions for management and disturbance scenarios applied. We have demonstrated the capabilities of these tools to analyze the cumulative effects of management scenarios applied to real forest landscapes in Indiana and Missouri.