Vegetation Distribution

Climate change interactions with landscape vegetation and disturbance trends on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest, Arizona

Contact First Name: 
Miles
Contact Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Principal Investigator(s): 
Miles Hemstrom
Research Partners: 
Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

This project was a pilot effort to construct climate-connected state and transition models for a large landscape in eastern central Arizona. The objective was to use state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project and Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs from the model MC1 to construct and test the modeling approach.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Southwestern Region (R3)
Arizona
Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest
Project Status: 
Complete
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and Greater Sage-grouse habitat interactions in southeastern Oregon

Contact First Name: 
Megan
Contact Last Name: 
Creutzberg
Contact 2 First Name: 
Miles
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Principal Investigator(s): 
Megan Creutzberg
Research Partners: 
Portland State University, USGS Climate Center
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

This project will connect state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project with Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs for Southeastern Oregon. The objective is to develop a set of vegetation modeling tools that can be used by local land managers and collaborative groups to examine potential rangeland management scenarios and interactions with possible climate change impacts.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Project Status: 
Action
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and forest management interactions in southwestern Oregon

Contact First Name: 
Emilie
Contact Last Name: 
Henderson
Contact 2 First Name: 
Miles
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Principal Investigator(s): 
Emilie Henderson
Research Partners: 
Oregon State University, USGS Climate Center
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

This project will connect state and transition models developed as a part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project with Dynamic Global Vegetation Model outputs for Southwestern Oregon. The objective is to develop a set of vegetation modeling tools that can be used by local land managers and collaborative groups to examine potential forest management scenarios and interactions with possible climate change impacts.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Project Status: 
Planning
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and management interactions for forests in the central Oregon Cascades

Contact First Name: 
Miles
Contact Last Name: 
Hemstrom
Contact 2 First Name: 
Jessica
Contact 2 Last Name: 
Halofsky
Principal Investigator(s): 
Miles Hemstrom
Research Partners: 
Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Oregon State University, Institute for Natural Resources, US Forest Service
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

Computer simulation models are often used to project vegetation responses to changing CO2 (carbon dioxide) and climate. We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure.

Project Abstract: 

See more below

Research Results: 

Our results suggest that: (1) legacy effects incorporated in state-and-transition models realistically dampen climate change effects on vegetation; (2) species-specific response to fire built into state-and transition models can result in increased resistance to climate change, as was the case for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, or increased sensitivity to climate change, as was the case for some shrublands and grasslands in the study area; and (3) vegetation could remain relatively stable in the short term, then shift rapidly as a consequence of increased disturbance such as wildfire and altered environmental conditions. Managers and other land stewards can use results from our linked models to better anticipate potential climate-induced shifts in local vegetation and resulting effects on wildlife habitat.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Project Status: 
Complete
Record Entry Date: 
Tue, 09/16/2014

Climate change and future stream temperatures in the interior Columbia River Basin

Contact First Name: 
Steve
Contact Last Name: 
Wondzell
Principal Investigator(s): 
Steve Wondzell
FS Research Station(s): 
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Summary: 

Restoring riparian forests on streams where historic land uses have created open meadows could reduce maximum stream temperatures by as much as 7o C relative to current conditions, even under a future climate when air temperatures are 4o C warmer than today.

Project Abstract: 

Summer maximum stream temperatures are near thresholds of thermal tolerance for salmon and trout in many streams throughout the interior Columbia River Basin. Salmon and trout populations in many of these streams are severely depressed, resulting in efforts to restore stream and riparian habitat. Climate change raises serious questions about the long-term outcomes of restoration because projected warming could make many of these streams and rivers uninhabitable for salmon and trout within a few decades.

We used the mechanistic stream temperature model, HeatSource, to examine future changes in stream temperature on the upper Middle Fork John Day River. Our model scenarios examined: 1) a +4 oC increase in air temperature; 2) ±30% changes in stream discharge from both changes in irrigation withdrawals and climate-change related loss of winter snowpacks; and 3) four riparian vegetation scenarios: 3a) current conditions where effective stream shade averages 19%; 3b) a post-wild fire scenario with maximum vegetation height of 1 m and 10% canopy density resulting in 7% effective stream shade; 3c) an intermediate condition representing a young-open forest or tall-shrub dominated vegetation with trees or shrubs 10-m tall and with 30% canopy density resulting in 34% effective shade; and 3d) a restored riparian forest with trees 30-m high and canopy density of 50% resulting in 79% effective stream shade.

Our model results showed the composition and structure of riparian vegetation were the single biggest factor determining future stream temperatures. In contrast, changing air temperature or stream discharge had relatively small influence on future stream temperatures. The post-wildfire and the current-vegetation scenarios were warmer than today, but in both cases, effective shade was low, so the stream was sensitive to air temperature increases due to climate change. The intermediate restoration, simulating a young-open forest or a tall-shrub dominated riparian zone, was slightly cooler than today. The biggest change resulted from restoring the riparian forest which decreased summer maximum temperatures by ~ 7 oC.

Research Results: 

Manuscripts are in progress.

Geographic Region: 
United States
Northern Region (R1)
Montana
Pacific Northwest Region (R6)
Oregon
Washington
Project Status: 
Complete
Record Entry Date: 
Mon, 09/08/2014
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