Eastern Region (R9)

Forecasts of Climate-Associated Shifts in Tree Species (ForeCASTS)

Overview & Applicability

Forecasts of Climate-Associated Shifts in Tree Species (ForeCASTS) generates maps that depict future suitable habitat ranges for 213 North American tree species, in the United States and globally. It does this by using projections of future climate in combination with the concept of fine-scale, ecoregions—land areas that share similar environmental characteristics, such as soils, topography, and climate variables.

current habitat map from ForeCASTS
Summary: 

Using projections of future climate, ForeCASTS produces maps that depict future suitable habitat ranges for North American tree species in the United States and globally.

LANDFIRE (Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools)

Overview & Applicability

LANDFIRE (Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools) is a vegetation, fire and fuel characteristics mapping program. LANDFIRE data products consist of over 50 spatial data layers including: Existing Vegetation Type, Canopy, and Height; Biophysical Settings; Environmental Site Potential; Fire Behavior Fuel Models; Fire Regime Classes; and Fire Effects layers.

LANDFIRE map of vegetation change
Summary: 

LANDFIRE (Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools) is a vegetation, fire and fuel characteristics mapping program.

MC1 (MAPSS-Century 1)

Overview & Applicability

Assessments of vegetation response to climate change are often made by models that predict vegetation composition under steady-state conditions.

map of vegetation types in North America
Summary: 

MC1 was created to assess the potential impacts of global climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Users can access maps, datasets, and publications that were created using this model.

Climate Change Tree Atlas and Bird Atlas

Overview & Applicability

The Climate Change Atlases can help to answer a range of questions concerning current and projected suitable habitat (year 2100) for 134 tree species and 147 bird species in the eastern U.S.

quaking aspen habitat map - midwestern US
Summary: 

The Climate Change Atlases can be used to examine the current distribution of tree and bird habitats in the eastern United States, and how tree and bird distribution might change in response to different climate scenarios.

Determining the sensitivity of eastern US fire regimes to climate change

Southern Research Station
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center
Summary: 

Scientists are working to better understand fire across the landscape to help land managers effectively restore fire-dependent ecosystems and address future risks. This research can support social and forest management actions to mitigate climate change impacts.

Project Status: 
Action

Cumulative Effects of Succession, Management, and Disturbance on Forest Landscapes

Northern Research Station
Research Partners: 
University of Missouri, Columbia
Principal Investigator(s): 
Stephen Shifley
Summary: 

For more than 15 years we have worked together with collaborators from other institutions to develop and apply methods to forecast landscape-scale forest change in response to tree growth and species succession as well as disturbance from timber harvest and fire. Much of this work has utilized the LANDIS model to forecast changes in forest conditions for management and disturbance scenarios applied. We have demonstrated the capabilities of these tools to analyze the cumulative effects of management scenarios applied to real forest landscapes in Indiana and Missouri.

Project Status: 
Action

Northern Forest Ecosystem Experiment: Aspen Regeneration and Carbon Cycling

Northern Research Station
Research Partners: 
Michigan Technological University, University of Idaho, University of Wisconsin, University of Michigan
Principal Investigator(s): 
Mark E. Kubiske
Summary: 

The Northern Forest Ecosystem Experiment is a large-scale, long-term field experiment in which harvested forests regenerate in atmospheres with enhanced concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) or both gasses combined. This Experiment takes place on the same site as the 11-year Aspen FACE Experiment, following the final data collection for the Aspen FACE project in 2009.

Project Status: 
Action

Modeling potential future habitats for trees and birds in the eastern U.S.

Northern Research Station
Principal Investigator(s): 
Louis Iverson
Summary: 

The Landscape Change Research Group, from the Delaware, OH lab of the Northern Research Station, has been modeling potential changes in suitable habitat for trees and birds of the eastern US. These maps are available online at www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas. We also look at dispersal potentials through another modeling toolset, and work with modification factors to understand more about the factors not readily modeled.

Project Abstract: 

See more below

Project Status: 
Action
Research Results: 

Publications:

Prasad, A., L.Iverson, S.Matthews, M. Peters. 2009. Atlases of tree and bird species habitats for current and future climates. Ecological Restoration. 27: 260-263.

Iverson, L., A. M. Prasad, S. Matthews, and M. Peters. 2011. Lessons learned while integrating habitat, dispersal, disturbance, and life-history traits into species habitat models under climate change. Ecosystems. 14(6):1005-1020. 

Matthews, S. N., L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, and M. P. Peters. 2011. Potential habitat changes of 147 North American bird species to redistribution of vegetation and climate following predicted climate change. Ecography. 34:933-945.

Iverson, L. R., A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, and M. Peters. 2008. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management. 254:390-406.

Matthews, S. N., L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, M. P. Peters, and P. G. Rodewald. 2011. Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history factors. Forest Ecology and Management. 262:1460-1472.

Watershed Vulnerability Assessments on National Forests

Northern Research Station
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Pacific Southwest Research Station
Rocky Mountain Research Station
Southern Research Station
Summary: 

Watershed vulnerability assessment as being developed in the Forest Service, is a strategic assessment process that describes conditions, processes, and interactions at intermediate scales. It can be used to adapt broad guidance, analysis, and approaches to ecosystem management to particular places at management-relevant scales. The draft assessment process was piloted on 11 National Forests in 2010. The goal of the pilot watershed vulnerability assessment was to quantify the current and projected future condition of watersheds as affected by climate change to inform management decision making.

Project Status: 
Complete

Climate Change Response Framework

Northern Research Station
Principal Investigator(s): 
Chris Swanston
Summary: 

The Framework is a collaborative, cross-boundary approach among scientists, managers, and landowners to incorporate climate change considerations into natural resource management. It provides an integrated set of tools, partnerships, and actions to support climate-informed conservation and forest management.

Three regional projects encompass nine states, including 11 National Forests and millions of acres of forestland. Each regional project interweaves four components: science and management partnerships, vulnerability assessments, adaptation resources, and demonstration projects. Learn more about how the components interact to build a flexible, scalable, and effective Framework at CCRF Approach.

Project Status: 
Action
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