Online discussions from a foresight panel: Wildland fire management futures

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This data package contains 27 transcripts, organized by topic and round of discussion (1-3 rounds). Each file is available as both a Microsoft Word *.DOCX file and an ASCII *.TXT file. Within each file the posts are provided in chronological order and include the name of the panelist along with the date and time of their post. Below is a list of topics for each round.

FILES FOUND IN \Data\Round 1:

1. Bioengineering: How can we use developments in bioengineering, tissue and cell engineering, genomics, biotechnology, GM plants, forest biotechnology, etc., to improve forest health, prevent extreme forest fires, and better manage forests? What bioengineering developments can be done to allow forests to become more resilient?

2. Climate Change: climate change, which also included: 'Wildfires and Sustainability - Michael Marien's Observations' and 'The Unexpected Dilemma, Started by Jamais Cascio' at the end.

3. Economic and Political Context: What changes in the economic and political context could influence wildfire management? If federal funding for wildfire management continues to decline while demands for wildfire suppression continue to escalate, what are the most important activities to preserve? Is “for-profit” firefighting really a feasible approach? How could a “Department of Environmental Security” or other forms of cross-government coordination improve wildfire management?

4. Fire Resistant Designs and Materials: How can we inspire innovation for fire-resistant design? What developments are you aware of in fire-resistant materials and how they may contribute to wildfire management? What ideas do you have for fire-resistant design?

5. Insurance: Beyond requiring building owners to meet a wildfire checklist, are some insurers beginning to implement excessively restrictive criteria? What are the ethical issues around denying coverage to people in highly fire-prone areas or sharply raising the cost of coverage? What roles are appropriate for the Forest Service to play (for example, specifying areas of highest fire risk)?

6. Monitoring: What developments do you see in monitoring (biomonitoring) that can be applicable to forest fires? What do we need to improve on for monitoring forest fires and health in the future?

7. New Firefighting Technologies: What current technologies are used to fight forest fires, and what may replace them? What robotics, UAV ("drone"), mapping, and traffic system technologies can be used to fight forest fires? How far along are these different technologies in terms of readiness for use in firefighting? What is the Forest Service doing in this area? What other advances in firefighting technology may be on the horizon?

8. Policy Tools: What policy tools (e.g. zoning, taxes, incentives, disincentives, subsidies, regulations, or other "carrots" and "sticks") can be used to help achieve fire policy goals? What new kinds of policy tools may be required to achieve fire policy goals that reach out to homeowners and residents, businesses, parks, and relevant public authorities?

9. Preferred and Likely Futures: This forum is designed to wrap up our first online conversation and help us design our next online conversation later in the summer. It includes two topics: "More Firefighting or a More Fire-Adapted World?" and likely or probably achievable "External Circumstances" between now and 2050 in which wildfire management will be embedded.

10. Public Education and Engagement: How can we better educate and engage the public regarding wildfires? What might succeed "Smokey the Bear" to meet such a need? How can volunteerism and activism be encouraged? What approaches are currently being used? What other approaches could be used to promote public education and engagement?

11. Risk Assessment: How can the Forest Service help raise awareness in the communities of people dealing with Sustainability and Security about the seriousness of the risks post by wildfires? What are the “hard decisions” and investments needed to break out of the current situation of policy-driven escalating risk? To what extent is it possible to accurately quantify the risks posed wildfires?

12. Serious Games and Simulations: How can gamification and simulations be used to improve management of forest health and forest fires?

13. The Social Trap: Can The Forest Service Escape Its Trap? -- John Phipps' paper suggests that the Forest Service is caught in a self-made situation that futurist John Platt called a "Social Trap." Can we envision any ways to escape the trap?

14. Value Change: What are the values implicit in current approaches to wildlife management? What value changes could be most important for improving wildlife management? In what ways could value changes related to wildfire be effected? Should value change be equated with behavior change?


FILES FOUND IN \Data\Round 2:

15. Breaking Through Institutional Constraints: Breaking Through Institutional Constraints (2nd topic under Scenario 3)

16. Major Public Relations Campaign: Major Public Relations Campaign (2nd topic under Scenario 2)

17. New Paradigm of Wildfire Management: New Paradigm of Wildfire Management (3rd topic under Scenario 3)

18. Reactions to Michael Marien Paper: Reactions to Michael Marien’s Paper

19. Scenario 1 Discussion: UNDER SCENARIO 1 - What significant changes in wildfire management could result from (or are required by) this scenario? How would wildfire management need to adapt to make the best of this possible future?

20. Scenario 2 Discussion: UNDER SCENARIO 2 - What significant changes in wildfire management could result from (or are required by) this scenario? How would wildfire management need to adapt to make the best of this possible future?

21. Scenario 3 Discussion: UNDER SCENARIO 3 - What changes in wildfire management could result from the technical progress, economic growth, improved governance, and spirit of innovation and empowerment described in this scenario? What changes in wildfire management would make the best of this possible future?

22. Water Cooler Discussion: Anything else we want to discuss, apart from the three scenarios listed above.

23. Wildcard Discussion: Potential wildcards that could have major implications for the future of wildfire management.


FILES FOUND IN \Data\Round 3:

24. Actions and Strategies Appropriate in all 3 Scenarios: One of the outputs from this project will be to recommend actions/strategies for consideration by the Forest Service and other parts of the wildland fire management system. We especially want to highlight robust actions that appear to be appropriate across a wide range of potential future conditions. Please take a look again at the three scenarios we used in our Round 2 discussion. Then let’s talk here about ideas you’ve had, and ideas you’ve encountered in this forum, that you think would “work” in the circumstances of at least two or all three of the scenarios. Even a few ideas with that character would justify our entire effort.

25. Does the New Paradigm "Work" in all 3 Scenarios: One of the major ideas we’ve been discussing is that the “war on fire” (focusing on suppression) will increasingly fail and that we need to switch to a “New Paradigm” of wildfire management that focuses on learning to live with fire, creating defensible space and fire resilient structures and communities. The 2050 vision developed by John Phipps in Round 2 is a good articulation of that strategy and is set out again below. Can we legitimately argue that an approach something like what John describes (not necessarily organized exactly as he imagines) “works” across all three of our scenarios? Let’s discuss this below, getting specific about how and why it could work (or not work) in the different scenarios.

26. Institutionalizing Foresight in the Wildfire Management Community: Specific recommendations to the Forest Service and the larger wildfire management community about how to improve their foresight capability and institutionalize it as a continuous process tied in effectively to leadership decision making and planning.

27. Water Cooler: This area is for discussing anything else we want to deal with. Feel free to post your own topics here.

Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:

Olson, Robert L.; Bengston, David N.; DeVaney, Leif A.; Thompson, Trevor A.C. 2015. Wildland fire management futures: insights from a foresight panel. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-152. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 44 p.

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Metadata_Date: 20250828

Metadata_Contact:

Contact_Information:

Contact_Person_Primary:

Contact_Person: David Bengston

Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station

Contact_Address:

Address_Type: mailing and physical

Address: 1992 Folwell Avenue

City: St. Paul

State_or_Province: MN

Postal_Code: 55108

Country: USA

Contact_Voice_Telephone: 651-649-5162

Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: dbengston@fs.fed.us

Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.

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