Horizon scanning data for the future of outdoor recreation on public lands

Metadata:
Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Westphal, Lynne M.
Originator: Sachdeva, Sonya S.
Originator: Fisher, Cherie L.
Publication_Date: 2022
Title:
Horizon scanning data for the future of outdoor recreation on public lands
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: tabular digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2022-0063
Description:
Abstract:
Horizon scanning involves searching both within and outside a topic or field of interest for signals of change. It is fundamental to strategic foresight projects and works by gathering “scan hits”: signals of potential change. Some scan hits are weak signals of change, others are strong signals; both are important to consider. This data publication includes a subset of recreation-related scan hits from the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project database. While the data indicate potential changes globally, the focus was changes that could have an impact on U.S. public lands over the next 30 years. The resulting data include the title and original URL (when live at time of publication) for the scan hits relevant to outdoor recreation, the tag which denotes the horizon and content tags used in the horizon scanning, and then an indication of which categories (activities, ecology related, place related, recreation management related, social related, technology related, and economy) and sub-categories the particular scan hit was coded to.
Purpose:
The purpose of this study was to use horizon scanning to develop a database of signals of change - strong and weak, internal and external - in order to develop ideas of the range of possible public lands recreation futures over the next 30 years. This, in turn, informs policy makers, planners, and practitioners, allowing them to envision futures that they can plan for now–-whether that planning aims at a specific future or tries to avoid or minimize negative possible future outcomes.
Supplemental_Information:
These data were originally published on 09/28/2022. Metadata updates, including reference to newly published article, were made on 01/06/2025.

For more information about this study and these data, see Westphal (2022) and Hines et al. (2019).
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 2015
Ending_Date: 2021
Currentness_Reference:
Ground condition
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: None planned
Spatial_Domain:
Description_of_Geographic_Extent:
The geographic focus of this project was the United States.
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate: 172
East_Bounding_Coordinate: -66
North_Bounding_Coordinate: 72
South_Bounding_Coordinate: 18
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme_Keyword: biota
Theme_Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme_Keyword: economy
Theme_Keyword: environment
Theme_Keyword: health
Theme_Keyword: inlandWaters
Theme_Keyword: society
Theme_Keyword: transportation
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: National Research & Development Taxonomy
Theme_Keyword: Climate change
Theme_Keyword: Climate change effects
Theme_Keyword: Human response
Theme_Keyword: Ecology, Ecosystems, & Environment
Theme_Keyword: Environment and People
Theme_Keyword: Community development
Theme_Keyword: Quality of life
Theme_Keyword: Recreation
Theme_Keyword: Social values, ethics
Theme_Keyword: Urban natural resources management
Theme_Keyword: Fire
Theme_Keyword: Fire effects on environment
Theme_Keyword: Forest & Plant Health
Theme_Keyword: Climate effects
Theme_Keyword: Human effects
Theme_Keyword: Invasive species
Theme_Keyword: Forest Products
Theme_Keyword: Natural Resource Management & Use
Theme_Keyword: Economics
Theme_Keyword: Ecosystem services
Theme_Keyword: Water
Theme_Keyword: Wilderness
Theme_Keyword: Wildlife (or Fauna)
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Theme_Keyword: recreation
Theme_Keyword: horizon scan
Theme_Keyword: strategic foresight
Theme_Keyword: futures
Theme_Keyword: public lands
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Place_Keyword: United States
Access_Constraints: None
Use_Constraints:
These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Westphal, Lynne M.; Sachdeva, Sonya S.; Fisher, Cherie L. 2022. Horizon scanning data for the future of outdoor recreation on public lands. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2022-0063
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: Lynne M. Westphal
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Contact_Position: Research Social Scientist (Emeritus)
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 1033 University Pl #360
City: Evanston
State_or_Province: IL
Postal_Code: 60201
Country: USA
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: lynne.westphal@usda.gov
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Data_Set_Credit:
This project was funded by the USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Strategic Foresight Group.


Author Information:

Lynne M. Westphal
USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1861-5372

Sonya S. Sachdeva
USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7494-0164

Cherie L. Fisher
USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Westphal, Lynne M.
Publication_Date: 2022
Title:
The future of recreation on public lands: A horizon scan
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: document
Series_Information:
Series_Name: General Technical Report
Issue_Identification: NRS-GTR-208
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Madison, WI
Publisher: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Other_Citation_Details:
106 p.
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-208
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Hines, Andy
Originator: Bengston, David N.
Originator: Dockry, Michael J.,
Publication_Date: 2019
Title:
The forest futures horizon scanning project
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: document
Series_Information:
Series_Name: General Technical Report
Issue_Identification: NRS-GTR-P-187
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Newtown Square, PA
Publisher: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-P-187
Analytical_Tool:
Analytical_Tool_Description:
NVivo 11 is a qualitative data analysis software package
Tool_Access_Information:
Online_Linkage: https://www.qsrinternational.com/nvivo-qualitative-data-analysis-software/
Tool_Access_Instructions:
See website
Tool_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: QSR International
Publication_Date: 2017
Title:
NVivo 11
Edition: NVivo 11 for Windows Version 11.4.1.1064
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: software
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Vienna, Austria
Publisher: QSR International
Online_Linkage: https://www.qsrinternational.com/nvivo-qualitative-data-analysis-software/
Analytical_Tool:
Analytical_Tool_Description:
R software
Tool_Access_Information:
Online_Linkage: https://www.R-project.org/
Tool_Access_Instructions:
See website
Tool_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: R Core Team
Publication_Date: 2020
Title:
R: A language and environment for statistical computing
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: software
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Vienna, Austria
Publisher: R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Online_Linkage: https://www.R-project.org/
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Data_Quality_Information:
Attribute_Accuracy:
Attribute_Accuracy_Report:
The scan hits were gathered by a team of strategic foresight analysts with expertise in scanning. Over 12 scanners contributed scan hits over six years.
Logical_Consistency_Report:
not applicable
Completeness_Report:
When a website was no longer available, horizon scanner notes regarding the scan hit were used instead.
Lineage:
Methodology:
Methodology_Type: Lab
Methodolgy_Identifier:
Methodolgy_Keyword_Thesaurus:
None
Methodology_Keyword: horizon scanning
Methodology_Keyword: scraping
Methodology_Description:
HORIZON SCANNING

Horizon scanning is the method used to obtain the data provided in this publication. It is the foundation for most strategic foresight work (Hines et al. 2019). Horizon scanning acts as an early warning system, gathering and analyzing signals of possible change. These changes can be within a sector, such as forestry, and from without: broader economic, social, technological, governance, and other changes that could impact the sector. It is crucial to look beyond the sector of interest because outside forces can have significant impacts on any topic of interest. Looking only within a field could miss a change that could bring dramatic transformations.

Horizon scanners look for a range of certainty, called horizons, with a good scanning project finding both fairly certain signals of change (horizon 1) and some that are highly speculative but would have real impact should they come to pass (horizon 3; horizon 2 scan hits are in between in terms of certainty and novelty).

‘Scan hits’ can be found many places: blog posts, newspaper articles, academic articles, speculative fiction, seminars, press releases, patent applications, and more.

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project has gathered over 3,500 forest-related horizon scan hits since 2015 (Hines et al. 2019). As data, they can be analyzed using traditional qualitative analytic techniques, or can be used to inform other horizon scanning processes (e.g., the Futures Wheel).
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Hines, Andy
Originator: Bengston, David N.
Originator: Dockry, Michael J.
Publication_Date: 2019
Title:
The forest futures horizon scanning project
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: document
Series_Information:
Series_Name: General Technical Report
Issue_Identification: NRS-GTR-P-187
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Newtown Square, PA
Publisher: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-P-187
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 2015
Ending_Date: 2022
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Publication Date
Source_Contribution:
The recreation-related scan hits were excerpted from the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system.
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
FOREST FUTURES HORIZON SCANNING SYSTEM

The online database Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system (Hines et al. 2019) stores links and notes. This system allows searching, tagging and annotating of each scan hit.


NARROWING TO OUTDOOR RECREATION

We culled through the 2,500+ forest-related scan hits in the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system and pulled all that were relevant to outdoor recreation for analysis. These scan hits may be directly related to outdoor recreation (for example, the decline of snow fall due to climate change) or they may be indirectly related (for example, the development of lab grown meat could reduce grazing which in turn could lead to grazing lands being available for recreation). Because weak signals of change are as important as strong signals, a single scan hit is worthy of consideration, even if it stands alone. This resulted in a total of 738 scan hits that were related to outdoor recreation.

Because the database used for the horizon scanning data does not store the entire text from the item a scanner finds (it stores links and notes), we needed to scrape the web for the full text for a full analysis. Data were scraped from the web using R code (\Supplements\web_scraping_rec_urls.txt). There were cases where a scan hit pointed to a website that was no longer available and that data could not be scraped (about 75 of the scan hits). Each of these URLs were checked manually and copied if the link were still live (some sites are designed to not be scraped). When the link was dead (a 404 error), scanner notes from the scanning database were copied manually into the recreation dataset. A list of these compiled the scan notes by category can be found in \Supplements\scan_hit_sources_by_topic.pdf). Any that were 404 errors scanner notes at the time the scan hit was entered in the scan database were used.

Data were analyzed using NVivo 11, a qualitative software package (QSR International). QSR International. © 2017. NVIVO 11 for Windows Version 11.4.1.1064. Victoria, Australia.

The relevant scan hit results are broken into the following outdoor recreation-based categories: recreation activities, ecology related, place related, recreation management related, social related, technology related, and economy. Within each category there are subcategories (e.g., under recreation management related hits it can be narrowed down to tourism, infrastructure, recreation gear, pets, etc.). The resulting data file includes the title and original URL for the relevant scan hit, the tag which denotes the horizon or content tags used in the horizon scanning, and then an indication of which categories/sub-categories were denoted as relevant.

For more details see Westphal (2022).


Westphal, Lynne M. 2022. The future of recreation on public lands: A horizon scan. General Technical Report. NRS-GTR-208. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 106 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-208
Process_Date: 2022
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Entity_and_Attribute_Information:
Overview_Description:
Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
Below you will find a list and description of the files included in this data publication.

VARIABLE DESCRIPTION FILE (1)

1. \Data\_variable_descriptions.csv: Comma-separated values (CSV) file containing a list and description of variables found in all data files. (A description of these variables is also provided in the metadata below.)

Columns include:

Filename = name of data file(s)
Variable = name of variable
Type = type of variable (text, or categorical variable where "1" is a hit and blank is not a hit)
Description = description of variable


DATA FILES (2)
Data are provided in two different formats: CSV and Microsoft Excel Open XML spreadsheet file (XLSX). These files contain the results from horizon scans which gathered and analyzed signals of possible change within the recreation sector.

1. \Data\RecreationPublicLandsScanHits.csv and
2. \Data\RecreationPublicLandsScanHits.xlsx

Variables in both files include:

Title = Name of the scan hit

URL = Web address for the scan hit (most URL's active as of June 2022)

Tags = Horizon scan hits are tagged for content in the database. H1, H2, H3 indicate the horizon (near & likely to distant or unlikely), plus tag words like recreation, climate change, etc.

The remaining variables include a series of categories and sub-categories. A “1” in the field means this row (scan hit) was coded to the specified topic.

Activities: Traditional = Traditional activities like hunting ,fishing, gathering/foraging, hiking, horseback riding, interpretive sites, photography, picnic, snow sports, swimming, wildlife viewing.
Activities: New = Newer activities such as Cosplay and forest-specific festivals.

Ecology Related: Biodiversity = Biodiversity related
Ecology Related: Climate change = Climate change related.
Ecology Related: Forests = Forest related (specifically, as most of our scan hits are relevant to forests).
Ecology Related: Wildlife = wildlife and wildlife viewing
Ecology Related: Other = Other scan hits related to ecology, including: invasive species, natural hazard, pollution & degradation, restoration, soundscapes, water, wildfire.

Place Related: Agriculture = Agriculture and range related.
Place Related: Landscape conflict = Landscape conflicts related.
Place Related: Private lands = Private lands issues.
Place Related: Rural development = Rural development issues.
Place Related: Special places = Special places.
Place Related: Urban & WUI = Urban and Wildland Urban Interface related.
Place Related: Wilderness = Related to formal Wilderness areas or management.

Recreation Management Related: Tourism = Tourism and tourists.
Recreation Management Related: Safety, search & rescue = Safety issues, search and rescue (SAR).
Recreation Management Related: Infrastructure = Infrastructure issues in recreation.
Recreation Management Related: Pets = Pets and recreation.
Recreation Management Related: Recreation gear = Recreation gear (tents, backpacks, bikes, etc.)
Recreation Management Related: Transportation = Transportation issues in recreation.
Recreation Management Related: Other = Other issues related to managing recreation, such as outreach, accessibility, earning a living, privatization, visitor management.

Social Related: Health = Human health related issues.
Social Related: Governance = Governing public lands, rule development, and relating issues.
Social Related: Diversity (all topics other than age) = Diversity regarding race, ethnicity, LGBTQ+, gender, and Indigenous/Tribal.
Social Related: Diversity (age/generational cohort) = Age related, by generational cohorts (children, elderly, etc.)
Social Related: Environmental attitudes = Attitudes about the environment, conservation, etc.
Social Related: Education = Education, both formal schools and environmental education.
Social Related: Work = Work, workforce, and workplace related. Includes jobs in forestry and recreation, and also how work is changing more generally in ways that effect recreation.
Social related: Other = Other social issues like environmental justice, citizen engagement, law enforcement, rights (of nature and Indigenous rights to access).

Technology Related: Social media = About social media with regards to recreation.
Technology Related: AI, AR, VR = Application of artificial intelligence (AI), Augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR) to recreation.
Technology Related: Drones & robots = Passenger drones and other use of drones in recreation (as a rec activity, for search and rescue, etc.) Robotics in recreation.
Technology Related: Autonomous cars & jetpacks = Self-driving cars, jetpacks.
Technology Related: Geoengineering = Ideas for geoengineering solutions to climate change and related issues.
Technology Related: Other = Other technology related scan hits, including CRISPR, data and privacy, wood products.

Economy: Economy = Economic issues are coded throughout these categories, but, unlike other STEEP categories (social, technology, environmental/ecological, economic, policy/governance), "economy" didn't have its own category in the code list outside of the STEEP set. Because economic issues might be of interest, this category was added to find all that were related to economics.


SUPPLEMENTAL FILES (2)

1. \Supplements\scan_hit_sources_by_topic.pdfPortable Document Format file containing the name of the scan hit file (e.g., “bacteria foul NJ’s largest lake”) sorted by topic category. If a scan hit link was not working at the time of the analysis, the scanner notes from the scan hit are included in this file (e.g., “great white shark fever sweep" [scanner note: "Shark tourism generates more than $300 million a year in places such as Australia, the Bahamas, and New Zealand. But I'm on Cape Cod…”]). This file serves two purposes: an easy way to find the scan hits relevant to a specific topic, and providing the scanner notes verbatim when that was the data available for the analysis.

2. \Supplements\web_scraping_rec_urls.txt: ASCII text file containing R Code written by Sonya S. Sachdeva that was used for scraping the web.
Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:
Westphal, Lynne M. 2022. The future of recreation on public lands: A horizon scan. General Technical Report. NRS-GTR-208. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 106 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-208
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Distribution_Information:
Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Research and Development
Contact_Position: Research Data Archivist
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 240 West Prospect Road
City: Fort Collins
State_or_Province: CO
Postal_Code: 80526
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: see Contact Instructions
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of January 2025. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Resource_Description: RDS-2022-0063
Distribution_Liability:
Metadata documents have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness. Unless otherwise stated, all data and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. However, neither the author, the Archive, nor any part of the federal government can assure the reliability or suitability of these data for a particular purpose. The act of distribution shall not constitute any such warranty, and no responsibility is assumed for a user's application of these data or related materials.

The metadata, data, or related materials may be updated without notification. If a user believes errors are present in the metadata, data or related materials, please use the information in (1) Identification Information: Point of Contact, (2) Metadata Reference: Metadata Contact, or (3) Distribution Information: Distributor to notify the author or the Archive of the issues.
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Network_Resource_Name: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2022-0063
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Format_Version_Number: see Format Specification
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Microsoft Excel Open XML spreadsheet file
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Network_Resource_Name: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2022-0063
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Network_Resource_Name: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2022-0063
Fees: None
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 20250106
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: Lynne M. Westphal
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Contact_Position: Research Social Scientist (Emerit)
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 1033 University Pl #360
City: Evanston
State_or_Province: IL
Postal_Code: 60201
Country: USA
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: lynne.westphal@usda.gov
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: Dave Bengston
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Contact_Position: Research Forester
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 1992 Folwell Ave.
City: St. Paul
State_or_Province: MN
Postal_Code: 55108
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 651-649-5162
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: david.bengston@usda.gov
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Metadata_Standard_Name: FGDC Biological Data Profile of the Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001.1-1999
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