Spatial datasets of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the sagebrush biome (270m)

Metadata:

Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Originator: Dillon, Gregory K.
Originator: Scott, Joe H.
Originator: Vogler, Kevin C.
Originator: Jaffe, Melissa R.
Originator: Olszewski, Julia H.
Originator: Finney, Mark A.
Originator: Riley, Karin L.
Originator: Grenfell, Isaac C.
Originator: Jolly, W. Matthew
Originator: Brittain, Stuart E.
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
Spatial datasets of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the sagebrush biome (270m)
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2023-0050
Description:
Abstract:
Regional data depicting burn probability (BP) and conditional flame-length probability (FLP) were generated for the sagebrush biome in the western United States using a geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the USDA Forest Service, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. The FSim system includes modules for weather generation, wildfire occurrence, fire growth, and fire suppression. FSim is designed to simulate the occurrence and growth of wildfires under tens of thousands of hypothetical contemporary fire seasons in order to estimate the probability of a given area (i.e., pixel) burning under current (ca. 2020) landscape conditions and fire management practices. The data presented here represent modeled BP and conditional flame-length probability for the sagebrush biome at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution. Flame-length probability is estimated for six standard flame-length classes as follows: FLP1 = < 2 feet (ft); FLP2 = 2 < 4 ft; FLP3 = 4 < 6 ft; FLP4 = 6 < 8 ft; FLP5 = 8 < 12 ft; FLP6 = 12+ ft. Because they indicate conditional probabilities (i.e., representing the likelihood of burning at a certain intensity level, given that a fire occurs), the FLP data must be used in conjunction with the BP data for risk assessment.
Purpose:
In the western United States, hundreds of thousands of acres of highly imperiled sagebrush ecosystems are lost or degraded each year as a result of altered wildfire regimes. In response to these wildfire threats, extensive fuel treatment investments have been proposed throughout the region. Regional-scale assessment of wildfire risk offers a consistent means of evaluating threats to valued resources and assets, thereby facilitating the most cost-effective investments in management activities that can mitigate those risks. We used a simulation system to estimate the probabilistic components of wildfire risk across the sagebrush biome, which includes portions of 13 western states.
Supplemental_Information:
These data were produced using methods described herein and used to produce the 3rd edition BP and FLP for national analyses (Dillon et al. 2023), However, where they overlap, this product differs from the national product suite, because this effort used a landscape dataset depicting ca. 2020 fuel conditions that was customized to better reflect expected fire behavior in the sagebrush biome, including influences from exotic annual grass invasion (e.g., cheatgrass) and conifer (e.g., pinyon, juniper) encroachment (Short et al. 2024).

These data were published on 12/21/2023. On 03/13/2024, metadata updates included: 1) the correction of the buffer size around each pyrome (was originally stated as 60 kilometers, but has been corrected to 30 kilometers); and 2) the addition of the Joint Fire Science Program Final Report associated with these data.
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Single_Date/Time:
Calendar_Date: 2020
Currentness_Reference:
Ground condition
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: As needed
Spatial_Domain:
Description_of_Geographic_Extent:
These data are located in these states within the western United States: Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico.
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate: -125.35573
East_Bounding_Coordinate: -100.46580
North_Bounding_Coordinate: 47.90356
South_Bounding_Coordinate: 34.43997
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme_Keyword: environment
Theme_Keyword: geoscientificInformation
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: National Research & Development Taxonomy
Theme_Keyword: Ecology, Ecosystems, & Environment
Theme_Keyword: Fire
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Theme_Keyword: burn probability
Theme_Keyword: flame length
Theme_Keyword: fire intensity
Theme_Keyword: Joint Fire Science Program
Theme_Keyword: JFSP
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Place_Keyword: western United States
Place_Keyword: Washington
Place_Keyword: Oregon
Place_Keyword: California
Place_Keyword: Idaho
Place_Keyword: Montana
Place_Keyword: North Dakota
Place_Keyword: South Dakota
Place_Keyword: Wyoming
Place_Keyword: Colorado
Place_Keyword: Utah
Place_Keyword: Nevada
Place_Keyword: Arizona
Place_Keyword: New Mexico
Place_Keyword: sagebrush biome
Access_Constraints: None
Use_Constraints:
These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Short, Karen C.; Dillon, Gregory K.; Scott, Joe H.; Vogler, Kevin C.; Jaffe, Melissa R.; Olszewski, Julia H; Finney, Mark A.; Riley, Karin L.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Jolly, W. Matthew; Brittain, Stuart E. 2023. Spatial datasets of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the sagebrush biome (270m). Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2023-0050
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory
Contact_Person: Karen Short
Contact_Position: Research Ecologist
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory
Address: 5775 US Hwy 10 W
City: Missoula
State_or_Province: MT
Postal_Code: 59808
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 406-329-4800
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: karen.c.short@usda.gov
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Browse_Graphic:
Browse_Graphic_File_Name: \Supplements\SBRA_BP_270m.png
Browse_Graphic_File_Description:
Portable Network Graphics (PNG) file displaying the burn probability data for the sagebrush biome at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution using class breaks on a full log (1/3-log) scale.
Browse_Graphic_File_Type: PNG
Browse_Graphic:
Browse_Graphic_File_Name: \Supplements\SBRA_FLP#_270m.png
Browse_Graphic_File_Description:
PNG files (6) displaying the conditional flame-length probability data for the sagebrush biome at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution, for six different flame-length classes (#=1-6): FLP1 = < 2 feet (ft); FLP2 = 2 < 4 ft; FLP3 = 4 < 6 ft; FLP4 = 6 < 8 ft; FLP5 = 8 < 12 ft; FLP6 = 12+ ft.
Browse_Graphic_File_Type: PNG
Browse_Graphic:
Browse_Graphic_File_Name: \Supplements\SBRA_pyromes.png
Browse_Graphic_File_Description:
Portable Network Graphics file displaying the 31 pyromes (Short et al. 2020a) used as simulation units for the sagebrush biome risk assessment (SBRA).
Browse_Graphic_File_Type: PNG
Data_Set_Credit:
Funding for this project provided by Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP # 19-2-02-11): https://www.firescience.gov; USDA Forest Service, Fire and Aviation Management; and USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.


Author Information:

Karen C. Short
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3383-0460

Gregory K. Dillon
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6304-650X

Joe H. Scott
Pyrologix LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3246-1190

Kevin C. Vogler
Pyrologix LLC
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7080-2557

Melissa R. Jaffe
Pyrologix LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8623-407X

Julia H. Olszewski
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3205-7100

Mark A. Finney
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6584-1754

Karin L. Riley
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6593-5657

Isaac C. Grenfell
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3779-1681

W. Matthew Jolly
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0457-6563

Stuart E. Brittain
Alturas Solutions, LLC
Native_Data_Set_Environment:
Microsoft Windows Enterprise; ArcGIS Desktop 10.8.2
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Chambers, Jeanne C.
Originator: Reeves, Matthew C.
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Originator: Urza, Alexandra K.
Originator: Hanberry, Brice
Originator: Ellsworth, Lisa M.
Originator: Strand, Eva K.
Originator: Lacy, Katherine
Originator: Taylor, Michael
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
Using next generation fuels data and outcome-based metrics in fire risk assessments for high value resources in the sagebrush biome
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: document
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Joint Fire Science Program Final Report
Issue_Identification: JFSP # 19-2-02-11
Other_Citation_Details:
(Report is included in full data publication download: \Supplements\19-2-02-11_final_report.pdf)
Online_Linkage: https://www.firescience.gov/projects/19-2-02-11/project/19-2-02-11_final_report.pdf
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Chambers, Jeanne C.
Originator: Brown, Jessi L.
Originator: Bradford, John B.
Originator: Doherty, Kevin E.
Originator: Crist, Michele R.
Originator: Schlaepfer, Daniel R.
Originator: Urza, Alexandra K.
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
Combining resilience and resistance with threat-based approaches for prioritizing management actions in sagebrush ecosystems
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: journal article
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Conservation Science and Practice
Issue_Identification: 5(11): e13021
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.13021
Online_Linkage: https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/67012
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Dillon, Gregory K.
Originator: Scott, Joe H.
Originator: Jaffe, Melissa R.
Originator: Olszewski, Julia H.
Originator: Vogler, Kevin C.
Originator: Finney, Mark A.
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Originator: Riley, Karin L.
Originator: Grenfell, Isaac C.
Originator: Jolly, W. Matthew
Originator: Brittain, Stuart E.
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
Spatial datasets of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the United States (270m)
Edition: 3rd
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2016-0034-3
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Originator: Scott, Joe H.
Originator: Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.
Originator: Napoli, James M.
Originator: Olszewski, Julia H.
Originator: Chambers, Jeanne C.
Originator: Brown, Jessi L.
Originator: Crist, Michele R.
Originator: Ellsworth, Lisa M.
Originator: Reeves, Matthew C.
Originator: Strand, Eva K.
Originator: Tortorelli, Claire M.
Originator: Urza, Alexandra K.
Originator: Vaillant, Nicole M.
Publication_Date: 2024
Title:
Fuelscape datasets for wildfire risk assessment in the sagebrush biome (270m)
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0004
Analytical_Tool:
Analytical_Tool_Description:
FSim is often referred to as a "large fire simulator" because it attempts to model the ignition and growth of only those wildfires with a propensity to spread. Relatively large and generally fast-moving fires are the focus of this system because they account for the majority (~80-97%) of total area burned per simulation unit, etc., and thus contribute the greatest to the probability of a wildland fire burning a given parcel of land therein (i.e., wildfire hazard). Fire occurrence in FSim is stochastically modeled based on historical relationships between large fires and Energy Release Component (ERC), a fire danger index that reflects dryness based on temperature and precipitation over approximately a 40-day period. The size threshold for defining a large fire was calculated for each spatial simulation unit (pyrome) and ranged from 73 acres up to 4,380 acres.

Because its objective is to simulate the behavior of large, spreading fires, FSim only models fire growth on days when the ERC reaches or exceeds the 80th percentile condition, signifying dry fuel conditions. On those days, the length of the active burning period is set at 1 hour, 3 hours, and 5 hours for the 80th, 90th, and 97th percentile ERC conditions, respectively. Fire growth and behavior is calculated using standard FlamMap routines and a minimum travel time (MTT) algorithm. Suppression influences on growth are accounted for by two mechanisms. The first is a statistical model that determines fire duration by indicating probability of containment (cessation) based on spread rates, fuel types, and the length of time a fire has been burning throughout each fire simulation. The second mechanism is a ‘perimeter trimming’ function that simulates the effect of suppression actions on fire progression and shape, resulting in improved fire size distributions from the simulation.

The fire growth simulations, when run over a multitude of individual fire seasons, each with different ignition locations and weather streams, generate burn probabilities and fire behavior distributions at each landscape location (i.e., cell or pixel). Results are objectively evaluated through comparison with historical fire patterns and statistics, including the mean fire size and number of large fires per million acres for each simulation unit. This evaluation is part of the FSim calibration process, whereby simulation inputs are adjusted until the mean fire size and number of large fires per million acres fall within an acceptable range of the historical reference value (i.e., the 70% confidence interval for the mean).

For a technical overview of the Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the USDA Forest Service, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk, see Finney et al. (2011).
Tool_Access_Information:
Tool_Access_Instructions:
Please send requests to: Fire Modeling Institute, USFS Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, 5775 US Highway 10 West, Missoula, Montana, 59808; SM.FS.mso_fmi@usda.gov
Tool_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Finney, Mark A.
Originator: McHugh, Charles W.
Originator: Grenfell, Isaac C.
Originator: Riley, Karin L.
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Publication_Date: 2011
Title:
A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: journal article
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Issue_Identification: 25(7): 973-1000
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0462-z
Online_Linkage: https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/39312
Back to Top
Data_Quality_Information:
Attribute_Accuracy:
Attribute_Accuracy_Report:
Model results are objectively evaluated through comparison with historical fire patterns and statistics within each pyrome. This evaluation is part of the FSim calibration process, whereby simulation inputs are adjusted until the validation statistics fall within an acceptable range of the historical reference value (±10%). Statistics used as calibration targets were: a) mean annual number of large fires per million burnable acres; and b) mean annual large-fire area burned per million burnable acres. The reference period for calibration targets was the most recent 15 years of records from the Fire Program Analysis Fire Occurrence Database (FPA FOD; Short 2022) (2006-2020). In addition to the calibration targets, several variables were graphed in each pyrome as visual checks on the number and sizes of fires produced in the simulation. These variables included: historical vs. simulated 15-year cumulative fire size distribution (plotted as fire size against annual fire size exceedance probability), full FPA FOD period (1992-2020) mean annual number of large fires and large-fire area burned, and first 15-years’ FPA FOD (1992-2006) mean annual number of fires and large-fire area burned. For more information on the calibration process see Thompson et al. (2016, 2022).


Short, Karen C. 2022. Spatial wildfire occurrence data for the United States, 1992-2020 [FPA_FOD_20221014]. 6th Edition. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2013-0009.6

Thompson, Matthew P.; Bowden, Phil; Brough, April; Scott, Joe H.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Taylor, Alan; Anderson, Jennifer; Haas, Jessica R. 2016. Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Forests. 7(3): 1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/f7030064 and https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/50797

Thompson, Matthew P.; Vogler, Kevin C.; Scott, Joe H.; Miller, Carol. 2022. Comparing risk-based fuel treatment prioritization with alternative strategies for enhancing protection and resource management objectives. Fire Ecology. 18: 26. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-022-00149-0 and https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/66231
Logical_Consistency_Report:
Pixels with nonzero values for BP also have nonzero sum-total values in the FLP# layers, and the six FLP layers will sum to 1. Pixels with values of zero ("0") for BP have corresponding sum-total zero ("0") values in the FLP# layers.
Completeness_Report:
Cells with a zero ("0") value for burn probability were characterized as a non-burnable fuel type in the 270-meter FBFM40 dataset (https://landfire.gov/fbfm40.php) when resampled to 270-m pixels. All pixels with a burnable fuel type inside the sagebrush biome will have a nonzero BP value and the six FLP layers will sum to 1.
Lineage:
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Abatzoglou, John T.
Publication_Date: 2013
Title:
Gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modeling
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: NetCDF
Online_Linkage: https://www.climatologylab.org/gridmet.html
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 1992
Ending_Date: 2020
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Ground Condition
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
gridMET (Abatzoglou 2013)
Source_Contribution:
A gridded daily historical climatology was used to generate values of ERC and dead fuel moisture content for the period of 1992-2020. These data were needed to generate synthetic weather streams for the FSim simulations.

Abatzoglou, John T. 2013. Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modeling. International Journal of Climatology 33: 121-131. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Originator: Grenfell, Isaac C.
Originator: Riley, Karin L.
Originator: Vogler, Kevin C.
Publication_Date: 2020
Title:
Pyromes of the conterminous United States
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2020-0020
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 1992
Ending_Date: 2020
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Ground Condition
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
Pyromes (Short et al. 2020a)
Source_Contribution:
Pyromes are landscape regions of relatively homogenous contemporary fire regimes (Short et al. 2020a) and were used as the spatial simulation units for this modeling effort. Simulations were run for each pyrome separately, using inputs and calibration targets specific to each pyrome. The sagebrush biome comprises 31 pyromes from the national dataset (see \Supplements\SBRA_pyromes.png).
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Originator: Finney, Mark A.
Originator: Vogler, Kevin C.
Originator: Scott, Joe H.
Originator: Gilbertons-Day, Julie W.
Originator: Grenfell, Isaac C.
Publication_Date: 2020
Title:
Spatial datasets of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the United States (270m)
Edition: 2nd
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2016-0034-2
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Single_Date/Time:
Calendar_Date: 2014
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Ground Condition
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
2nd edition national (Short et al. 2020b)
Source_Contribution:
For alignment purposes, the 270-m fuelscape rasters were snapped to the 270-m rasters published in the previous (2nd) edition of national FSim data products.
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Publication_Date: 2022
Title:
Spatial wildfire occurrence data for the United States, 1992-2020 [FPA_FOD_20221014]
Edition: 6th
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2013-0009.6
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 1992
Ending_Date: 2020
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Ground Condition
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
FOD (Short 2022)
Source_Contribution:
This historical wildfire dataset was used in development of the FSim products.

The development of the historical fire-occurrence data is described in a companion paper:

Short, Karen C. 2014. A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011. Earth System Science Data 6:1-27. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-1-2014
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Short, Karen C.
Originator: Scott, Joe H.
Originator: Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.
Originator: Napoli, James M.
Originator: Olszewski, Julia H.
Originator: Chambers, Jeanne C.
Originator: Brown, Jessi L.
Originator: Crist, Michele R.
Originator: Ellsworth, Lisa M.
Originator: Reeves, Matthew C.
Originator: Strand, Eva K.
Originator: Tortorelli, Claire M.
Originator: Urza, Alexandra K.
Originator: Vaillant, Nicole M.
Publication_Date: 2024
Title:
Fuelscape datasets for wildfire risk assessment in the sagebrush biome (270m)
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0004
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Single_Date/Time:
Calendar_Date: 2020
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Ground Condition
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
Fuelscape (Short et al. 2024)
Source_Contribution:
LANDFIRE fuel and terrain data calibrated specifically for wildfire risk assessment in the sagebrush biome.
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Western Regional Climate Center
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) data archive
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: tabular digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Reno, NV
Publisher: Western Regional Climate Center
Online_Linkage: https://raws.dri.edu/
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 1992
Ending_Date: 2020
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Ground Condition
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
RAWS (Western Regional Climate Center 2023)
Source_Contribution:
Wind data from a selected RAWS station from each pyrome were used to determine distributions of wind speeds and directions for simulations.
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
1. Prepare the landscape file (LCP; fuelscape).

LANDFIRE version 2.0.0 (ca. 2016) fuel and topography data were downloaded as full-extent mosaics from landfire.gov and extracted to the sagebrush biome. Disturbances, including large wildfires, from 2017-2019 were incorporated using data from LANDFIRE (https://landfire.gov/disturbance.php), FACTS and NFPORS (https://services3.arcgis.com/T4QMspbfLg3qTGWY/ArcGIS/rest/services/Integrated_Interagency_Fuels_Treatments_View/FeatureServer), and recent fire severity maps and fire perimeters from MTBS (https://www.mtbs.gov/) so that the fuelscape represented ca. 2020 conditions. The ca. 2020 fuelscape was then customized to better reflect expected fire behavior in the sagebrush biome, including influences from exotic annual grass invasion (e.g., cheatgrass) and conifer (e.g., pinyon, juniper) encroachment (Short et al. 2024). The fuel and topography rasters were resampled to 270-meter [m] resolution using the nearest-neighbor resampling method. These resampled 270-m rasters were snapped to the 270-m rasters published in the previous (2nd) edition of national FSim data products (Short et al. 2020b).

In each pyrome (Short et al. 2020a), the area included in the landscape file extended 30 kilometers (km) beyond the pyrome boundary to allow for fires to grow unhindered by the edge of the fuelscape, which would otherwise truncate fire growth and affect the simulated fire-size distribution.
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
Pyromes (Short et al. 2020a), 2nd edition national FSim (Short et al. 2020b)
Process_Date: 2022
Source_Produced_Citation_Abbreviation:
Fuelscape (Short et al. 2024)
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
2. Determine large fire size thresholds for each pyrome.

For each pyrome, a large fire size threshold was determined from the FOD records from 1992-2020 by identifying the fire size at which the slope of a Lorenz curve equaled 1 (Lorenz curve represents the cumulative number of fires plotted against the cumulative proportion of area burned). FSim fire-size distributions frequently exhibit a discontinuity at a fire size of four pixels (regardless of pixel resolution), making the results unreliable at that number of pixels and smaller. To avoid that issue, the minimum allowable large-fire size was 73 acres (just larger than four pixels at 270-m resolution). These pyrome-specific large-fire sizes were used for parameterizing FSim (building the logistic regression coefficients and fire-day distribution (FDist) table for the FDist file), establishing calibration targets (mean annual number of large fires and mean annual large-fire area burned), and generating the Ignition Density Grids (rasters representing the historical spatial pattern of large fire ignitions across the pyrome).
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
FOD (Short 2022)
Process_Date: 2022
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
3. Create ignition density rasters.

For each pyrome, a 270-m Ignition Density Grid (IDG) was produced using the large-fire size threshold calculated specific to that pyrome from fires occurring from 1992-2020. The IDG is used by FSim to represent the relative historical spatial pattern of large fire ignitions, and was created through a multi-step process designed to account for spatially variable ignitable land cover within a moving-window search radius. The IDGs across all pyromes were normalized to have a minimum value of 50 and a maximum value of 1000. In lieu of using an ignition mask in FSim simulations, IDG values in the buffer area around each pyrome were set to zero so fires would not ignite in the buffer during simulations.
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
Pyromes (Short et al. 2020a)
Process_Date: 2022
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
4. Process gridMET data and produce ERC at virtual station locations in each pyrome.

Daily values of Energy Release Component for fire danger fuel model G (ERC-G) and dead fuel moisture content for the period 1992-2020 were calculated for a representative location within each pyrome from a gridded historical climatology derived from gridMET data. Corrections for precipitation duration were made to the gridMET data following methods described in Jolly et al. (2019). A representative location (i.e., virtual station) in each pyrome was selected to be the location within the pyrome with the highest density of large-fire ignitions (but not closer than about 10 km from the pyrome boundary). We generated an FW13 file (fire weather file format) with temperature, humidity, and precipitation data for each of these virtual station locations, and then used these FW13 daily observations to generate daily values of ERC and dead fuel moisture content using a custom command-line utility called NFDRScli. Station catalog data for the virtual stations used as input for the NFDRScli tool were obtained from nearby RAWS.

Jolly, W. Matthew; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Page, Wesley G.; Butler, Bret W. 2019. Severe Fire Danger Index: A Forecastable Metric to Inform Firefighter and Community Wildfire Risk Management. Fire, 2: 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2030047 and https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/58973
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
gridMET (Abatzoglou 2013), RAWS (Western Regional Climate Center 2023)
Process_Date: 2021
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
5. Create the FDist file.

The FDist file lists the logistic regression coefficients needed by FSim for estimating daily large-fire ignition probability in relation to ERC-G, and the historical empirical distribution of the number of large fires per large-fire day. We used the BuildFDist command-line utility to generate an FDist file for each pyrome based on each pyrome’s daily historical ERC values and large-fire occurrence during the full 1992-2020 FOD reference period.
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
FOD (Short 2022)
Process_Date: 2022
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
6. Generate simulated ERCs and produce SeasonERC file.

Using historical ERC data for the contemporary 15-year period (2006-2020), we generated 20,000 years of simulated daily ERC values, synchronous across CONUS, for all pyromes. These are not 20,000 years into the future; rather, they are 20,000 possible realizations of a contemporary year based on statistics present in the 2006-2020 observational data. The simulated ERCs were formatted into the required SeasonERC.csv (SERC) format required by FSim.
Process_Date: 2022
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
7. Process wind data from RAWS and integrate with ERC data to produce FRISK file.

The FRISK file contains information required by FSim about three aspects of fire weather. The first section is for Time Series Data and stores historical ERC data. We populated this section with ERC data from the full FOD reference period of 1992-2020 but we did not use these data in the simulations. Instead, we used ERC information contained in the SeasonERC file. The second section of the FRISK is the percentiles section. It lists the ERC and moisture content values for percentiles between 0 and 100%. We populated this section initially using the command-line BuildFRISK utility from the FW13 files created for the selected virtual station locations using the full historical 1992-2020 period. We subsequently used the ModFRISK utility to update the ERC values for each percentile to use simulated ERCs for 1992-2020. We calculated percentiles from the simulated ERC values rather than the historical because the simulated ERCs sometimes had very different exceedance probabilities causing unpredictable results from FSim. The third section of the FRISK consists of tabular distributions of wind speed and direction by month. The FRISK wind distributions were generated with the BuildFRISK utility from the pyrome’s selected RAWS. The following are true about wind records included in creating the FRISK:

- Use as much of the full 1992-2020 period as available (minimum 10 years);
- Use observations from noon to 11pm;
- Use sustained wind speeds;
- Use the Weibull option for wind speed distributions;
- Allow a maximum sustained wind speed of 40 miles per hour (mi/h).

Although the ERC values used in the simulations (SeasonERC file) were generated from the contemporary 15-year period (2006-2020), the ERC percentiles in the FRISK file are for the full 29-year FOD period (1992-2020). This was done to capture and represent changes in ERC values over time that could cause extreme values of the simulated ERCs to occur more often than the nominal percentile would suggest. For example, under a stationary climate the 80th percentile ERC would be exceeded on 20 percent of the simulation days. Under a changing climate, the 80th percentile could be exceeded on more than 20 percent of the simulation days, which could result in both more fires per year and longer-duration fires.
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
RAWS (Western Regional Climate Center 2023), FOD (Short 2022)
Process_Date: 2022
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
8. Prepare additional FSim input files.

The ADJ file is an input to FSim that adjusts rates of spread by surface fuel model. We populated the ADJ files initially with baseline values arrived at through many years of running FSim on other projects across the US. We used a baseline ADJ value of 0.30 in all grass and grass-shrub fuel models, and 0.60 in all shrub, timber litter, timber understory, and slash-blowdown fuel models. These values were then adjusted during calibration runs to help achieve calibration targets.

The FMS file is an input file that allows fuel moisture values from the FRISK file to be overridden. We used the FMS file to enter fixed values of live herbaceous and live woody fuel moisture at the 80th, 90th, and 97th percentile ERC bins. We specified live herbaceous moisture content at 60%, 45%, and 30% at those three ERC levels respectively. We specified live woody moisture content at 110%, 90%, and 70% at those same ERC levels. Dead fuel moisture values still came from the FRISK file.
Process_Date: 2022
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
9. FSim model calibration.

FSim model calibration involved a series of iterative model runs in each pyrome with adjustments to input parameters until there was reasonable agreement with target values derived from fire occurrence data. Calibration targets for this project were, in each pyrome, the mean annual number of large fires per million burnable acres (±10%) and the mean annual large-fire area burned per million burnable acres (±10%), calculated from the last 15 years of the FOD (2006-2020).

For the initial calibration run in each pyrome we set the AcreFract parameter in FSim to 1.0 and used ADJ values of 0.30 for grass and grass-shrub fuel models and 0.60 for all other fuel models. Successive calibration runs were performed until the simulated with gradually increasing numbers of iterations, ending with about 25-50% of the final number of iterations, until simulated occurrence was “within range” of the historical occurrence. A simulation was considered "within range" if (1) the simulated annual number of large fires was within 10% of the 2006-2020 historical mean, and (2) the simulated annual large-fire area burned was within 10% of the 2006-2020 historical mean. The spatial pattern of simulated BP was then visually checked against known fire perimeters (from MTBS, etc.); and issues were addressed if needed. After mosaicking pyromes within a geographic area, we visually checked for spatial discontinuities in the mosaicked BP and intensity results and addressed any issues that were revealed. After calibration of all pyromes, the historical and simulated fire-size distributions were compared to ensure a reasonable fit.

There are no FSim inputs that directly affect mean annual area burned; they instead directly affect the annual number and/or mean size of fires (and consequently the slope of the fire-size distribution), which then affects mean annual area burned. Calibration adjustments were therefore chosen to affect the number and/or sizes of fires. Calibration of an individual pyrome generally followed the following steps:

First run: The base ADJ values (0.30 for grass/grass-shrub and 0.60 for all other fuel models) were used for the initial run. The AcreFract parameter was set to 1.0 for the initial run. Sustained winds for the initially selected RAWS were used for the initial calibration run. The fire size list for this simulation was pasted into a Microsoft Excel calibration workbook to visualize the result and determine inputs for the next run.

Second and subsequent runs: If the simulated mean large-fire size varied from the historical by more than a factor of three, a new RAWS with higher or lower winds was considered. If a new RAWS was not indicated, adjustments to the ADJ values were implemented to bring the simulated mean large-fire size closer to the historical. Standard guidance on subsequent-run ADJ values was developed based on experience on past FSim calibration projects. Additionally, a new value for the AcreFract parameter was calculated to bring the simulated mean annual number of large fires to within 10% of the historical (2006-2020) mean annual number of large fires. Adjustments to the ADJ values and AcreFract continued on successive calibration runs until the simulated occurrence fell within 10% of the historical target. Other FSim parameters that were adjusted when needed included the SuppressionFactor (only in pyrome 91) and the FireDayDistribution in the FDist input file.
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
RAWS (Western Regional Climate Center 2023), FOD (Short 2022)
Process_Date: 2023
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
10. FSim production runs.

Once each pyrome was considered within range of the calibration targets and had passed other Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) checks, a final full-iteration FSim run was performed. Final runs used input parameters arrived at through the calibration process and 20,000-100,000 iterations (i.e., potential annual weather scenarios) depending on the number of iterations needed to generate enough simulated fire perimeters across most burnable pixels to calculate probabilities.
Process_Date: 2023
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
11. FSim post-processing and QA/QC.

After final FSim runs were completed in each pyrome, the individual pyrome rasters were mosaicked into a single raster for the sagebrush biome. Because each pyrome included a 30 km buffer for simulation and fires were allowed only to start inside the pyrome boundary and burn out (by setting IDG values to no-data in the buffer), mosaics were created by simply adding BP values from adjacent pyromes. Pixels with burnable fuel types that did not burn in any simulations were assigned estimated values in the BP and FLP rasters as described in the entity and attribute section.
Process_Date: 2023
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Spatial_Data_Organization_Information:
Direct_Spatial_Reference_Method: Raster
Raster_Object_Information:
Raster_Object_Type: Pixel
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Spatial_Reference_Information:
Horizontal_Coordinate_System_Definition:
Planar:
Map_Projection:
Map_Projection_Name: Albers Conical Equal Area
Albers_Conical_Equal_Area:
Standard_Parallel: 29.5
Standard_Parallel: 45.5
Longitude_of_Central_Meridian: -96
Latitude_of_Projection_Origin: 23
False_Easting: 0
False_Northing: 0
Planar_Coordinate_Information:
Planar_Coordinate_Encoding_Method: Coordinate Pair
Coordinate_Representation:
Abscissa_Resolution: 0.0000000037527980722984474
Ordinate_Resolution: 0.0000000037527980722984474
Planar_Distance_Units: Meters
Geodetic_Model:
Horizontal_Datum_Name: North American Datum of 1983
Ellipsoid_Name: Geodetic Reference System 80
Semi-major_Axis: 6378137.0000
Denominator_of_Flattening_Ratio: 298.25722210
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Entity_and_Attribute_Information:
Overview_Description:
Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
Below you will find a list and description of the files included in this data publication.


VARIABLE DESCRIPTION FILE (1)

1. \Data\_variable_descriptions.csv: Comma-separated values (CSV) file containing a list and description of variables found in all data files. (A description of these variables is also provided in the metadata below.)

Columns include:

Filename = name of data file
Variable = name of variable
Units = units (if applicable)
Precision = precision (if applicable)
Description = description of variable


DATA FILES - BURN PROBABILITY (1)

1. \Data\SBRA_BP.tif: Georeferenced (GeoTIFF) raster files (and associated files) containing modeled burn probability data for the sagebrush biome at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution.

Values in the BP data layer indicate, for each pixel, the number of times that cell was burned by an FSim-modeled fire, divided by the total number of annual iterations simulated. The burn probability layer depicts only one component of wildfire risk, indicating the tendency of any given pixel to burn, given the static circa 2020 landscape conditions depicted by the LANDFIRE data, contemporary weather and ignition patterns, as well as contemporary fire management policies (entailing considerable fire prevention and suppression efforts). Pixels with burnable fuel types that did not burn in any simulation iterations (20,000-100,000 iterations depending on pyrome) were assigned a nominal burn probability value of 0.000008 (1 in 120,000). This value is lower than any value calculated through the simulations, but prevents subsequent calculations of hazard or risk on these pixels from automatically being zero.

The BP data do not, and are not intended to, depict fire-return intervals of any vintage, nor do they indicate projected fire footprints or routes of travel. Nothing about the expected shape or size of any actual fire incident can be interpreted from the burn probabilities. Instead, the BP data, in conjunction with the FIL layers, are intended to support an actuarial approach to quantitative wildfire risk analysis (e.g., see Thompson et al. 2011).


DATA FILES - CONDITIONAL FLAME-LENGTH PROBABILITY (6)

2-7. \Data\SBRA_FLP#.tif: GeoTIFF files (6) containing conditional flame-length probability (FLP) data for the sagebrush biome at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution (# = 1-6, which represents the different fire intensity levels described below).

Values in the FLP layers indicate, of all simulated fires that burned a given cell, the proportion in each of six standard flame-length classes as follows:
FLP1 = < 2 feet (ft)
FLP2 = 2 < 4 ft
FLP3 = 4 < 6 ft
FLP4 = 6 < 8 ft
FLP5 = 8 < 12 ft
FLP6 = 12+ ft

Burnable fuel types that did not burn within simulation limits (20,000-100,000 annual weather scenarios modeled, depending on the pyrome) were assigned an average FLP value based on the pyrome-wide mean of similar pixels. The purpose of assigning FLP values in these cases is so subsequent calculations of wildfire hazard and risk will not automatically equal zero at these pixels. FLP rasters were divided into zones based on combination of pyrome, surface fuel model, and presence or absence of burnable canopy cover (defined as Canopy Cover > 0 and Canopy Base Height <= 30). Zonal means were calculated in ArcGIS for every combination, and pixels with burnable fuel models that did not burn during simulations were assigned the mean value from burned pixels with the same combination of pyrome, fuel model, and burnable canopy presence/absence. Values assigned in this manner were checked and adjusted where necessary to ensure that the six FLP rasters summed to one in all cases. The reliability of FLP estimations likely increases with the number of simulations where a pixel was burned.

The utility of the calibrated FSim BP and FLP data for quantitative geospatial wildfire risk assessment is described in Thompson et al. (2011) and Scott et al. (2013).



SUPPLEMENTAL FILES (9)

1. \Supplements\19-2-02-11_final_report.pdf: Portable Document Format (PDF) file containing the 2023 Joint Fire Science Program Final Report for JFSP Project ID: 19-2-02-11, "Using next generation fuels data and outcome-based metrics in fire risk assessments for high value resources in the sagebrush biome".

2. \Supplements\SBRA_BP _270m.png: Portable Network Graphics (PNG) file displaying the burn probability map for the sagebrush biome using class breaks on a full log (1/3-log) scale.

3-8. \Supplements\SBRA_FLP#_270m.png: PNG files (6) displaying the conditional flame-length probability data for the sagebrush biome at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution, for six different flame-length classes (#=1-6): FLP1 = < 2 feet (ft); FLP2 = 2 < 4 ft; FLP3 = 4 < 6 ft; FLP4 = 6 < 8 ft; FLP5 = 8 < 12 ft; FLP6 = 12+ ft.

9. \Supplements\SBRA_pyromes.png: PNG file containing the 31 pyromes (Short et al. 2020a) used as simulation units for the sagebrush biome risk assessment (SBRA).
Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:
Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-315. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 83 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/rmrs-gtr-315 and https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/56265

Short, Karen C.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Riley, Karin L.; Vogler, Kevin C. 2020a. Pyromes of the conterminous United States. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2020-0020

Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2011. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 25: 761-780. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0461-0 and https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/37465
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Contact_Position: Research Data Archivist
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Address: 240 West Prospect Road
City: Fort Collins
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Metadata documents have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness. Unless otherwise stated, all data and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. However, neither the author, the Archive, nor any part of the federal government can assure the reliability or suitability of these data for a particular purpose. The act of distribution shall not constitute any such warranty, and no responsibility is assumed for a user's application of these data or related materials.

The metadata, data, or related materials may be updated without notification. If a user believes errors are present in the metadata, data or related materials, please use the information in (1) Identification Information: Point of Contact, (2) Metadata Reference: Metadata Contact, or (3) Distribution Information: Distributor to notify the author or the Archive of the issues.
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Georeferenced (GeoTIFF) raster files (and associated files)
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 20240313
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory
Contact_Person: Karen Short
Contact_Position: Research Ecologist
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory
Address: 5775 US Hwy 10 W
City: Missoula
State_or_Province: MT
Postal_Code: 59808
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 406-329-4800
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: karen.c.short@usda.gov
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Metadata_Standard_Name: FGDC Biological Data Profile of the Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001.1-1999
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