Pollinator distributions of North America for climate ranging from 20,000 years ago to year 2100

Metadata:
Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Hanberry, Brice B.
Publication_Date: 2024
Title:
Pollinator distributions of North America for climate ranging from 20,000 years ago to year 2100
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Fort Collins, CO
Publisher: Forest Service Research Data Archive
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0014
Description:
Abstract:
This data publication contains 2280 raster digital files of modeled potential distributions for 228 pollinator species that were observed from 1990-2022 during the summer months of June, July, and August in North America under the following 10 climates: 1981-2010; 20,000 years ago (ka); 10 ka; 6 ka; and six end-of-century (2071-2100) climate projections under two emission scenarios. Pollinator species include 88 butterflies, 69 moths, 12 flies, 17 wasps, 18 bees, and 24 beetles. Mean accuracies of withheld samples for models, based on climate of 1981-2010, ranged in values from 0.93 to 0.95, depending on the species. Mean annual temperature was found to be the most important variable for the greatest number of species, for summer distributions.
Purpose:
The purpose of this project was to provide pollinator distributions under different climates in North America.
Supplemental_Information:
For more information about these data and this project, see Hanberry (in review).
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: cc20000
Ending_Date: 2100
Currentness_Reference:
Ground condition
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: None planned
Spatial_Domain:
Description_of_Geographic_Extent:
These data represent North America.
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate: -171.79181
East_Bounding_Coordinate: -12.20847
North_Bounding_Coordinate: 83.64986
South_Bounding_Coordinate: 7.21653
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme_Keyword: biota
Theme_Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: National Research & Development Taxonomy
Theme_Keyword: Climate change
Theme_Keyword: Ecology, Ecosystems, & Environment
Theme_Keyword: Environment and People
Theme_Keyword: Natural Resource Management & Use
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Theme_Keyword: species distribution models
Theme_Keyword: climate atlas
Theme_Keyword: pollinators
Theme_Keyword: butterflies
Theme_Keyword: moths
Theme_Keyword: bees
Theme_Keyword: beetles
Theme_Keyword: flies
Theme_Keyword: wasps
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Place_Keyword: North America
Taxonomy:
Keywords/Taxon:
Taxonomic_Keyword_Thesaurus:
None
Taxonomic_Keywords: multiple species
Taxonomic_Keywords: animals
Taxonomic_Keywords: invertebrates
Taxonomic_Keywords: insects
Taxonomic_System:
Classification_System/Authority:
Classification_System_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: ITIS
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
Integrated Taxonomic Information System
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: on-line database
Other_Citation_Details:
Retrieved [October, 16, 2023]; CC0
Online_Linkage: https://www.itis.gov
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.5066/F7KH0KBK
Classification_System_Modifications:
Taxonomy for 215 species, obtained from ITIS, is provided in 2 formats: \Supplements\species_taxonomy.xml and \Supplements\species_taxonomy.html.

NOTE: Macaria pustularia is no longer an accepted name; Speranza pustularia was used as the accepted name.
Classification_System/Authority:
Classification_System_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Global Biodiversity Information Facility
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
Global Biodiversity Information Facility
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: on-line database
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Copenhagen, Denmark
Publisher: GBIF Secretariat
Other_Citation_Details:
Retrieved [December, 11, 2023]
Online_Linkage: https://www.gbif.org
Classification_System_Modifications:
Taxonomy for 13 species not found in the ITIS database, was obtained from GBIF. This taxonomic information is included along with the ITIS taxonomic information in \Supplements\species_taxonomy.xml and \Supplements\species_taxonomy.html.

The 13 species are:
Acrolophus popeanella
Atteva aurea
Coenonympha california
Crambus agitatellus
Exomala orientalis
Malacosoma americana
Monobia quadridens
Nomophila nearctica
Polistes dominula
Polistes exclamans
Polydrusus formosus
Propylea quatuordecimpunctata
Udea rubigalis
Taxonomic_Procedures:
Access_Constraints: None
Use_Constraints:
These data were collected using funding from the U.S. Government and can be used without additional permissions or fees. If you use these data in a publication, presentation, or other research product please use the following citation:

Hanberry, Brice B. 2024. Pollinator species distributions of North America for climate ranging from 20,000 years ago to year 2100. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0014
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Contact_Person: Brice Hanberry
Contact_Position: Research Ecologist
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 8221 Mt. Rushmore Rd.
City: Rapid City
State_or_Province: SD
Postal_Code: 57702
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 605-716-2205
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: brice.hanberry@usda.gov
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Data_Set_Credit:
This project was funded by the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.


Author Information:

Brice B. Hanberry
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8657-9540
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Hanberry, Brice B.
Publication_Date: Unknown
Title:
Increasing pollinator distributions, including monarchs (Danaus plexippus) and honey bees (Apis mellifera), in North America under future climate
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: journal article
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Ecological Solutions and Evidence
Other_Citation_Details:
[In review]
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Data_Quality_Information:
Attribute_Accuracy:
Attribute_Accuracy_Report:
Mean accuracies of withheld samples for models, based on climate of 1981-2010, ranged in values from 0.93 for 12 fly species; 0.94 for 88 butterfly, 69 moth, and 17 wasp species; to 0.95 for 18 bee and 24 beetle species.
Logical_Consistency_Report:
The data are logically consistent. The consistency was verified as part of the quality assurance that occurred during data analysis. Uncertainty in modeling species distributions based on climate arises from multiple sources, in addition to the effects of non-climate factors on distributions. Climate projections, downscaling of climate data, and species occurrence records are input sources of error, and modeling choices also may affect model outputs.
Completeness_Report:
This study included pollinator species that were observed since 1990 in North America during the summer months of June, July, and August, with coordinate uncertainty less than 999 meters. Additionally, only species that had at least 1000 unique locations were retained.

There are no missing data.
Lineage:
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Global Biodiversity Information Facility
Publication_Date: 2022
Title:
Global Biodiversity Information Facility
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: tabular digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Copenhagen, Denmark
Publisher: GBIF Secretariat
Other_Citation_Details:
[Accessed March 2022]
Online_Linkage: https://www.gbif.org
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.3trxwn
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.jhqkjh
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.9bv85f
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 1990
Ending_Date: 2022
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Publication Date
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
Global Biodiversity Information Facility (2022)
Source_Contribution:
Species occurrence records were obtained from this source.
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Karger Dirk N.
Originator: Conrad, Olaf
Originator: Böhner, Jurgen
Originator: Kawohl, Tobias
Originator: Kreft, Holger
Originator: Soria-Auza, Rodrigo W.
Originator: Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
Originator: Linder, H. Peter
Originator: Kessler, Michael
Publication_Date: 2021
Title:
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Switzerland
Publisher: Envidat
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.228
Larger_Work_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Karger Dirk N.
Originator: Conrad, Olaf
Originator: Böhner, Jurgen
Originator: Kawohl, Tobias
Originator: Kreft, Holger
Originator: Soria-Auza, Rodrigo W.
Originator: Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
Originator: Linder, H. Peter
Originator: Kessler, Michael
Publication_Date: 2017
Title:
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: journal article
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Scientific Data
Issue_Identification: 4: 170122
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 2071
Ending_Date: 2100
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Publication Date
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
Karger et al. (2017)
Source_Contribution:
Climate predictor variables were obtained from this source.
Source_Information:
Source_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Karger, Dirk N.
Originator: Nobis, Michael P.
Originator: Normand, Signe
Originator: Graham, Catherine H.
Originator: Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
Publication_Date: 2020
Title:
CHELSA-TraCE21k: Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the last glacial maximum
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Switzerland
Publisher: Envidat
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.211
Larger_Work_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Karger, Dirk N.
Originator: Nobis, Michael P.
Originator: Normand, Signe
Originator: Graham, Catherine H.
Originator: Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
Publication_Date: 2023
Title:
CHELSA-TraCE21k: Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the last glacial maximum
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: journal article
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Climate of the Past
Issue_Identification: 19(2): 439-456
Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023
Type_of_Source_Media: Online
Source_Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: cc20000
Ending_Date: 1990
Source_Currentness_Reference:
Publication Date
Source_Citation_Abbreviation:
Karger et al. (2020)
Source_Contribution:
Climate predictor variables were obtained from this source.
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
The modeling extent was North America and Greenland. For climate, debiased and downscaled 30-year to 100-year climatologies were extracted during 20 ka, 10 ka, 6 ka, 1981–2010, and 2071–2100 (resolution 30 arc seconds; CHELSA climate; Karger et al. 2017, 2020). Future climate projections included a range of climate for North America from the moderate SSP3-7.0 scenario: GFDL-ESM4 (GFDL; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA) that projected an increase of 4.3 °Celsius (°C) mean annual temperature, IPSL-CM6A-LR (IPSL; Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France) with an increase of 6.3 °C mean annual temperature, and UKESM1-0-LL (UKESM1; Met Office Hadley Centre, UK) with an increase of 8.8 °C mean annual temperature. Additionally, similar climates were used from the fossil fuel driven SSP5-8.5 scenario general circulation models GFDL-ESM4 (GFDL; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), MPI-ESM1-2-HR (MPI; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and MRI-ESM2-0 (MRI; Meteorological Research Institute), which projected increased temperatures of 5.2 to 5.9 °C in North America. Thirteen bioclimatic variables were obtained that quantify temperature and precipitation at annual, seasonal, and monthly intervals: mean annual temperature, maximum temperature of the hottest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the coldest and hottest three months, mean temperature of the driest and wettest three months, annual precipitation, precipitation during the driest month and driest three months, precipitation during the wettest month, and precipitation during the coldest and warmest three months.

The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (Global Biodiversity Information Facility 2022) is a centralized data repository containing 65,000 datasets of 2 billion species observations. The North American pollinator species were extracted, included those observed since 1990 in North America during the summer months of June, July, and August, with coordinate uncertainty less than 999 meters. Additionally, only species that had at least 1000 unique locations were retained. Climate values at each of the species occurrence coordinates were also extracted. For pseudoabsences, an equal number of random points from the study extent, or background were used. Likewise, climate variables for the absence points were extracted.

For the modeling of each species, an iterative process was applied to winnow variables for modeling, based on near present climate, and then predicted to each climate interval with application of the random forests classifier, an ensemble nonlinear model. Many variables contribute minimally to models and can obscure the influence of each variable, although ensemble nonlinear models typically are robust in isolating influence of redundant, highly correlated predictors, particularly of temperature. First, with 10-fold cross validation, repeated 3 times, random forests recursive feature elimination was used, which builds a model based on all variables, rank-orders variable importance, and removes variables with the least importance based on model evaluation metrics (i.e., accuracy), to reduce the number of variables from 13 to 8. Then, the modeling process is repeated again, retaining only variables that carried an importance value ≥ 10 (out of 100 scale; note that other classifiers will assign weights differently). These remaining variables followed two different pathways. With samples partitioned into training (75% of samples) and test (25% of samples), accuracy metrics were calculated. With all of the samples, models were used to predict potential distributions under past, near present, and future climates.

For additional details, see Hanberry (in review).


Hanberry, Brice B. [In review]. Increasing pollinator distributions, including monarchs (Danaus plexippus) and honey bees (Apis mellifera), in North America under future climate. Ecological Solutions and Evidence.
Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation:
1. Karger et al. (2017)
2. Karger et al. (2020)
3. Global Biodiversity Information Facility (2022)
Process_Date: Unknown
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Spatial_Data_Organization_Information:
Direct_Spatial_Reference_Method: Raster
Raster_Object_Information:
Raster_Object_Type: Pixel
Row_Count: 19150
Column_Count: 9172
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Spatial_Reference_Information:
Horizontal_Coordinate_System_Definition:
Geographic:
Latitude_Resolution: 0.008333
Longitude_Resolution: 0.008333
Geographic_Coordinate_Units: Decimal Degrees
Geodetic_Model:
Horizontal_Datum_Name: World Geodetic System of 1984
Ellipsoid_Name: World Geodetic System of 1984
Semi-major_Axis: 6378137.0000
Denominator_of_Flattening_Ratio: 298.257223563
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Entity_and_Attribute_Information:
Overview_Description:
Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
Below you will find a list and description of the files included in this data publication.

RASTER DATA FILES (2280)

\Data\[insect_type]\[species]_[time_period]_[climate_model]_[emission_scenario].tif: Georeferenced (GeoTIFF) raster files representing modeled potential insect distributions under different climates. There are a total of 228 species (88 butterflies, 69 moths, and 71 other insects which include flies, wasps, bees, and beetles) and 10 climates for a grand total of 2280 raster files. Each file contains the predicted probabilities from 0 to 1 (values > 0.499 are counted as present).

Each file name contains the species and the climate interval. CHELSA and CHELSA TraCE21k are the source data for the climate variables. CHELSA is the source of the future climate, but due to the length of the information, CHELSA is not included in the file name for future climate. The future climate is listed by the general circulation model and emission scenario.

Below are descriptions of each part of the folder and file names.

INSECT_TYPE:
1. Butterflies
2. Moths
3. OtherInsects (which includes flies, wasps, bees, and beetles)

SPECIES: Scientific name of species

TIME_PERIOD:
1. 20ka = 20,000 years ago
2. 10ka = 10,000 years ago
3. 6ka = 6,0000 years ago
4. 1981-2010
5. 2071-2100 (future projections)

CLIMATE_MODEL:
1. gfdl-esm4 = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (USA)
2. ipsl-cm6a-lr = Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (France)
3. mpi-esm1-2-hr = Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
4. mri-esm2-0 = Meteorological Research Institute
5. ukesm1-0-ll = Met Office Hadley Centre (UK)

EMMISSION_SCENARIO:
1. ssp370 = SSP3-RCP7, which means additional radiative forcing of 7 watts per square meter (W/m²) by the year 2100. This scenario is in the upper-middle part of the full range of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP).
2. ssp585 = SSP5-RCP8.5, which means additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by the year 2100. This scenario represents the upper boundary of the range of SSPs.


In summary, there are 10 different climate files provided for each species:
1. [SPECIES]_6k_CHELSA_TraCE21k.tif
2. [SPECIES]_10k_CHELSA_TraCE21k.tif
3. [SPECIES]_20k_CHELSA_TraCE21k.tif
4. [SPECIES]_1981-2010_CHELSA.tif
5. [SPECIES]_2071-2100_gfdl-esm4_ssp370.tif
6. [SPECIES]_2071-2100_gfdl-esm4_ssp585.tif
7. [SPECIES]_2071-2100_ipsl-cm6a-lr_ssp370.tif
8. [SPECIES]_2071-2100_mpi-esm1-2-hr_ssp585.tif
9. [SPECIES]_2071-2100_mri-esm2-0_ssp585.tif
10.[SPECIES]_2071-2100_ukesm1-0-ll_ssp370.tif



SUPPLEMENTAL FILES (3)

\Supplements\species_list.csv: Comma-separated values file containing the list of species used in the pollinator distribution models in this package.

Columns include:

Taxa = Taxonomic group (butterfly, moth, bee, beetle, fly, or wasp)
Species = Scientific name, which may have a common synonym
Scientific Name = Scientific name of species, which may be a common synonym
Authority = Taxonomic authority (name and date of person or persons who first described the species
Family = Family of species


\Supplements\species_taxonomy.html: HTML file containing taxonomic classification information for the species used in the pollinator distribution models in this package.


\Supplements\species_taxonomy.xml: XML file containing taxonomic classification information for the species used in the pollinator distribution models in this package.
Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:
Hanberry, Brice B. [In review]. Increasing pollinator distributions, including monarchs (Danaus plexippus) and honey bees (Apis mellifera), in North America under future climate. Ecological Solutions and Evidence.
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Distribution_Information:
Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Research and Development
Contact_Position: Research Data Archivist
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 240 West Prospect Road
City: Fort Collins
State_or_Province: CO
Postal_Code: 80526
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: see Contact Instructions
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of February 2024. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Resource_Description: RDS-2024-0014
Distribution_Liability:
Metadata documents have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness. Unless otherwise stated, all data and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. However, neither the author, the Archive, nor any part of the federal government can assure the reliability or suitability of these data for a particular purpose. The act of distribution shall not constitute any such warranty, and no responsibility is assumed for a user's application of these data or related materials.

The metadata, data, or related materials may be updated without notification. If a user believes errors are present in the metadata, data or related materials, please use the information in (1) Identification Information: Point of Contact, (2) Metadata Reference: Metadata Contact, or (3) Distribution Information: Distributor to notify the author or the Archive of the issues.
Standard_Order_Process:
Digital_Form:
Digital_Transfer_Information:
Format_Name: CSV
Format_Version_Number: see Format Specification
Format_Specification:
Comma-separated values file
Digital_Transfer_Option:
Online_Option:
Computer_Contact_Information:
Network_Address:
Network_Resource_Name: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0014
Digital_Form:
Digital_Transfer_Information:
Format_Name: TIFF
Format_Version_Number: see Format Specification
Format_Specification:
Georeferenced (GeoTIFF) raster file
Digital_Transfer_Option:
Online_Option:
Computer_Contact_Information:
Network_Address:
Network_Resource_Name: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0014
Fees: None
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 20240227
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Contact_Person: Brice Hanberry
Contact_Position: Research Ecologist
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 8221 Mt. Rushmore Rd.
City: Rapid City
State_or_Province: SD
Postal_Code: 57702
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 605-716-2205
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: brice.hanberry@usda.gov
Contact Instructions: This contact information was current as of original publication date. For current information see Contact Us page on: https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS.
Metadata_Standard_Name: FGDC Biological Data Profile of the Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001.1-1999
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