Brian Potter

Research Meteorologist
Threat Characterization and Management
400 N 34th St., Suite 201
Seattle, WA 98103-8600
United States
Seattle, WA 98103-8600
United States
Phone
206-732-7828
Current Research
I am presently working on a variety of projects. I am examining how dry air and high winds several thousand feet above the ground can influence fire behavior. I have a project exploring extreme fire behavior, and just what that term means. I am working to understand how the atmosphere interacted with the major wildfires in Victoria, Australia, in February 2009. I am also working with several collaborators to understand the potential role of water vapor in fire plumes.
Past Research
My past research has included work on the energy involved in fires, including that of the atmosphere, and how that does or does not predict fire behavior. I have worked on a number of projects examining the Haines Index, a commonly used index of the potential contribution of the atmosphere to erratic fire behavior. I have also worked on questions related to the temperature, wind, and moisture environment under the forest canopy.
Research Interest
In general, my research interest is understanding the complex meteorology associated with wildland fires. That includes how weather conditions create severe wildfires and how these wildfires alter the winds and meteorology around them. Within that broad area, areas of particular interest to me include historical gaps in fire weather research; the many scales of atmospheric processes that influence fire behavior; and the sensitivity and uncertainty of fire behavior models and tools.
Why This Research Is Important
If I cannot understand how answering a question would protect lives or property, I don't study it. All of the questions I am exploring relate to a fire's behavior in the region where firefighters are active, to the space where aircraft may be helping fight the fire, and, to an extent, to the areas affected by the smoke produced by the fire. I try to focus on what can be predicted far enough in advance that the information can help protect firefighters, resources, and people's health and property.
Education
- University of Washington, Ph.D., Atmospheric Sciences, 1994
- Carleton College, B.A., Physics, 1986
Featured Publications
- Winkler, Julie A.; Potter, Brian E.; Wilhelm, Dwight F.; Shadbolt, Ryan P.; Piromsopa, Krerk; Bian, Xindi. 2007. Climatological and statistical characteristics of the Haines Index for North America
- Woodall, Christopher W.; Charney, Joseph; Liknes, Greg; Potter, Brian. 2006. Linking Fuel Inventories With Atmospheric Data for Assessment of Fire Danger
- Woodall, Christopher W.; Charney, Joseph J.; Liknes, Greg C.; Potter, Brian E.. 2005. What's the fire danger now Linking fuel inventories with atmospheric data
- Clements, Craig B.; Zhong, Shiyuan; Goodrick, Scott; Li, Ju; Potter, Brian E.; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.; Charney, Joseph J.; Perna, Ryan; Jang, Meongdo; Lee, Daegyun; Patel, Monica; Street, Susan; Aumann, Glenn. 2007. Observing the dynamics of Wildland grass fires: Fireflux - a field validation experiment
- Potter, Brian E.; Charney, Joseph J.; Fusina, Lesley A.. 2006. Atmospheric moisture's influence on fire behavior: surface moisture and plume dynamics.
Other Publications
- Chiodi, Andrew M.; Potter, Brian E.; Larkin, Narasimhan K.. 2021. Multi decadal change in Western US nighttime vapor pressure deficit
- Potter, Brian E.; McEvoy, Daniel. 2021. Weather factors associated with extremely large fires and fire growth days
- Ranjan, P. ; Perez, K. ; Alvarado, T. ; Potter, Brian; Breidenthal, R. E.. 2020. Chemically reacting transverse plume
- Watts, Andrea ; Potter, Brian ; Charney, Joseph ; Srock, Alan. 2020. The Hot-Dry-Windy Index: A new tool for forecasting fire weather
- Liu, Yongqiang ; Kochanski, Adam ; Baker, Kirk R.; Mell, William ; Linn, Rodman ; Paugam, Ronan ; Mandel, Jan ; Fournier, Aime ; Jenkins, Mary Ann; Goodrick, Scott ; Achtemeier, Gary ; Zhao, Fengjun ; Ottmar, Roger ; French, Nancy H. F.; Larkin, Narasimhan ; Brown, Timothy ; Hudak, Andrew ; Dickinson, Matthew ; Potter, Brian ; Clements, Craig ; Urbanski, Shawn ; Prichard, Susan ; Watts, Adam ; McNamara, Derek. 2019. Fire behaviour and smoke modelling: model improvement and measurement needs for next-generation smoke research and forecasting systems
- Potter, Brian. 2018. Quantitative evaluation of the Haines Index's ability to predict fire growth events
- Prichard, Susan ; Larkin, Sim N.; Ottmar, Roger ; French, Nancy H.F.; Baker, Kirk ; Brown, Tim ; Clements, Craig ; Dickinson, Matt ; Hudak, Andrew ; Kochanski, Adam ; Linn, Rod ; Liu, Yongqiang ; Potter, Brian ; Mell, William ; Tanzer, Danielle ; Urbanski, Shawn ; Watts, Adam. 2019. The fire and smoke model evaluation experiment a plan for integrated, large fire atmosphere field campaigns
- Potter, Brian. 2018. The Haines Index it's time to revise it or replace it
- Srock, Alan ; Charney, Joseph ; Potter, Brian ; Goodrick, Scott. 2018. The hot-dry-windy index: A new fire weather index
- Potter, Brian E.; Hernandez, Jaime R.. 2017. Downdraft outflows: climatological potential to influence fire behaviour
- Zhong, Shiyuan; In, Hee-Jin; Bian, Xindi; Charney, Joseph; Heilman, Warren; Potter, Brian. 2005. Evaluation of real-time high-resolution MM5 predictions over the Great Lakes region
- Charney, Joseph J.; Potter, Brian E.. 2017. Convection and downbursts
- Liu, Yongqiang; Kochanski, Adam; Baker, Kirk; Mell, Ruddy; Linn, Rodman; Paugam, Ronan; Mandel, Jan; Fournier, Aime; Jenkins, Mary Ann; Goodrick, Scott; Achtemeier, Gary; Hudak, Andrew; Dickson, Matthew; Potter, Brian; Clements, Craig; Urbanski, Shawn; Ottmar, Roger; Larkin, Narasimhan; Brown, Timothy; French, Nancy; Prichard, Susan; Watts, Adam; McNamara, Derek. 2017. Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE): Modeling gaps and data needs
- Werth, Paul A.; Potter, Brian E.; Alexander, Martin E.; Clements, Craig B.; Cruz, Miguel G.; Finney, Mark A.; Forthofer, Jason M.; Goodrick, Scott L.; Hoffman, Chad; Jolly, W. Matt; McAllister, Sara S.; Ottmar, Roger D.; Parsons, Russell A.. 2016. Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume 2 for fire behavior specialists, researchers, and meteorologists
- Strand, Tara; Gullett, Brian; Urbanski, Shawn; O’Neill, Susan; Potter, Brian; Aurell, Johanna; Holder, Amara; Larkin, Narasimhan; Moore, Mark; Rorig, Miriam. 2016. Grassland and forest understorey biomass emissions from prescribed fires in the southeastern United States - RxCADRE 2012
- Ottmar, Roger D.; Hiers, J. Kevin; Butler, Bret W.; Clements, Craig B.; Dickinson, Matthew B.; Hudak, Andrew T.; O'Brien, Joseph; Potter, Brian E.; Rowell, Eric M.; Strand, Tara M.; Zajkowski, Thomas J.. 2016. Measurements, datasets and preliminary results from the RxCADRE project-2008, 2011 and 2012
- Potter, Brian E.; Anaya, Matthew A.. 2015. A Wildfire-relevant climatology of the convective environment of the United States
- Rorig, Miriam; Solomon, Robert; Krull, Candace; Peterson, Janice; Ruthford, Julia; Potter, Brian. 2013. Analysis of meteorological conditions for the Yakima Smoke Intrusion Case Study, 28 September 2009
- Werth, Paul A.; Potter, Brian E.; Clements, Craig B.; Finney, Mark A.; Goodrick, Scott L.; Alexander, Martin E.; Cruz, Miguel G.; Forthofer, Jason A.; McAllister, Sara S.. 2011. Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume I for fire managers
- Potter, Brian E.. 1996. Atmospheric mesoscale simulations of regional wildland fire episodes: looking for weather-related factors and scales of interaction
- Potter, Brian E.. 2003. Impact of Released Fual Moisture on Atmospheric Dynamics
- Potter, Brian E.; Goodrick, Scott; Brown, Tim. 2003. Development of a Statistical Validation Methodology for Fire Weather Indices
- Potter, Brian E.; Goodrick, Scott. 2003. Performance of the Haines Index During August 2000 for Montana
- Charney, Joseph J.; Bian, Xindi; Potter, Brian E.; Heilman, Warren E.. 2003. Mesoscale Simulations During the Double Trouble State Park Wildfire in East-Central New Jersey on June 2, 2002
- Charney, Joseph J.; Bian, Xindi; Potter, Brian E.; Heilman, Warren E.. 2003. Low Level Impacts on Fire Evolution in the Mack Lake and Other Severe Wildfires
- Potter, Brian E.; Martin, Jonathan E.. 2001. Accuracy of 24- and 48-Hour Forecasts of Haines' Index
- Potter, Brian E.. 2002. A dynamics based view of atmosphere-fire interactions
- Potter, Brian E.; Borsum, Dan; Haines, Don. 2002. Keeping Haines Real - Or Really Changing Haines
- Potter, Brian E.; Strong, Terry. 2002. Comparison of Simulated Stem Temperatures and Observed Air Temperatures with Observed Stem Growth in Forest Openings
- Potter, Brian E.; Teclaw, Ronald M.; Zasada, John C.. 2001. The impact of forest structure on near-ground temperatures during two years of contrasting temperature extremes
- Potter, Brian E.; Zasada, John C.. 1999. Biomass, thermal inertia, and radiative freeze occurrence in leafless forests
- Potter, Brian E. ; Croft, Paul J.. 2000. Spatial Variation In Growing Season Heat Sums Within Northern Hardwood Forest Canopy Gaps
- Chubarova, Nataly Ye.; Prilepsky, Nickolay G.; Riebau, Allen R.; Shoettle, Anna W.; Musselman, Robert; Uliumdzhieva, Natalia N.; Yurova, Alla Yu; Potter, Brian; Rublev, Alexei N.; Zhmylev, Pavel Yu; Karpuhina, Elizaveta A. 2003. A natural fire experiment in Central Russia: meteorology, radiative and optical properties of atmosphere and resulting effects in sub-boreal forest plants.
- Potter, Brian E.. 2003. Impact of released fuel moisture on atmospheric dynamics.
- Potter, Brian E.; Goodrick, Scott; Brown, Tim. 2003. Development of a statistical validation methodology for fire weather indices.
- Charney, Joseph J.; Bian, Xindi; Potter, Brian E.; Heilman, Warren E.. 2003. The role of a stratospheric intrusion in the evolution of the Double Trouble State Park wildfire .
- Charney, Joseph J.; Bian, Xindi; Potter, Brian E.; Heilman, Warren E.. 2003. Low level jet impacts on fire evolutions in the Mack Lake and other severe wildfires.
- Heilman, Warren E.; Bian, Xindi; Charney, Joseph J.; Potter, Brian E.. 2003. Combining the Haines Index and turbulent kinetic energy for fire-weather predictions.
- Heilman, Warren E.; Bian, Xindi; Charney, Joseph J.; Potter, Brian E.. 2003. National Fire Plan--Eastern Area Modeling Consortium: Research, product development, and partnerships.
- Andresen, J.A.; McCullough, D.G.; Potter, B.E.; Koller, C.N.; Bauer, L.S.; Ramm, C. W.. 2001. Effects of winter temperatures on gypsy moth egg masses in the Great Lakes region of the United States.
- Potter, Brian E.; Cate, Thomas W.. 1999. A climatology of late-spring freezes in the northeastern United States.
- Heilman, Warren E.; Hom, John; Potter, Brian E.. 2000. Climate and atmospheric deposition patterns and trends
Research Highlights

The Hot-Dry-Windy Index improves fire weather forecasting
Year: 2018
A new tool helps fire managers anticipate when wildfires could become erratic or dangerous.