Frank H. Koch
Research Ecologist
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center
P.O. Box 12254
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2254
United States
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2254
United States
Phone
919-549-4006
0000-0002-3750-4507
Current Research
- Primary research focus on quantitative and spatial analysis of forest health data, with a particular emphasis on invasive forest pests and the modeling of invasion risk at multiple spatial scales, from landscape to continental
- Characterization and representation of uncertainty in forest pest risk maps, using both probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches
- Application of trade and transportation networks to estimate human-mediated invasion likelihoods for locations of interest
- Optimal survey design and pest detection strategies
- Analysis of short- and long-term drought patterns, including how these patterns may relate to forest pest outbreak risk
Education
- North Carolina State University, Ph.D., Forestry, 2005
- North Carolina State University, M.S., Natural Resources, 2001
- Duke University, B.A., Art Design / Philosophy, 1993
Featured Publications
- Duehl, Adrian J.; Koch, Frank H.; Hain, Fred P.. 2011. Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history
- Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.. 2010. Representing human-mediated pathways in forest pest risk mapping
- Potter, Kevin M.; Hargrove, William W.; Koch, Frank H.. 2010. Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species
- Venette, Robert C.; Kriticos, Darren J.; Magarey, Roger D.; Koch, Frank H.; Baker, Richard H. A.; Worner, Susan P.; Raboteaux, Nadila N. Gomez; McKenney, Daniel W.; Dobesberger, Erhard J.; Yemshanov, Denys; De Barro, Paul J.; Hutchinson, William D.; Fowler, Glenn; Kalaris, Tom M.; Pedlar, John. 2010. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Smith, William D.. 2010. Robustness of risk maps and survey networks to knowledge gaps about a new invasive pest
Other Publications
- Hudgins, Emma J.; Koch, Frank H.; Ambrose, Mark J.; Leung, Brian. 2022. Hotspots of pest induced US urban tree death, 2020 2050
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Simpson, Mackenzie ; Koch, Frank H.; Parisien, Marc‐André ; Barber, Quinn E.; Campioni, Fabio ; Macdermid, Fin ; Choudhury, Salimur. 2021. Optimal restoration of wildlife habitat in landscapes fragmented by resource extraction: a network flow modeling approach
- Takeuchi, Yu ; Koch, Frank ; Nelson, Stacy C.. 2021. Recent Immigrant Insect Fauna Another Look at a Classic Analysis
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Rempel, Robert S.; Koch, Frank H.; Rodgers, Art. 2021. Balancing Large-Scale Wildlife Protection and Forest Management Goals with a Game-Theoretic Approach
- McKelvey, Steven C.; Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Hawley, Kelly R.. 2021. A Bayesian model identifying locations at risk from human transported exotic pathogens
- Koch, Frank H.. 2021. Considerations regarding species distribution models for forest insects
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.. 2021. Chapter 4 - Spatial patterns of drought and moisture surplus in the conterminous United States: 2019, and between 2017 to 2019, and 2015 to 2019
- Potter, Kevin M.; Paschke, Jeanine L.; Koch, Frank H.; Berryman, Erin M.. 2021. Chapter 2 - Broad-scale patterns of insect and disease activity across the 50 United States from the National Insect and Disease Survey, 2019
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Rempel, Rob ; Koch, Frank H.; Rodgers, Art. 2021. Exploring the tradeoffs among forest planning, roads and wildlife corridors: a new approach
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Rempel, Rob ; Liu, Ning ; Koch, Frank H.. 2021. Protecting wildlife habitat in managed forest landscapes How can network connectivity models help
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; MacQuarrie, Chris J.K.; Liu, Ning ; Venette, Robert ; Ryall, Krista. 2020. Optimal invasive species surveillance in the real world: practical advances from research
- Venette, Robert C.; Gordon, Doria R.; Juzwik, Jennifer ; Koch, Frank H.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Peterson, Robert K. D.; Sing, Sharlene E.; Yemshanov, Denys. 2021. Early Intervention Strategies for Invasive Species Management: Connections Between Risk Assessment, Prevention Efforts, Eradication, and Other Rapid Responses
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; MacQuarrie, Chris J. K.; Koch, Frank H.; Liu, Ning ; Venette, Robert ; Ryall, Krista. 2020. Optimal planning of multi day invasive species surveillance campaigns
- Adams, Damian C.; Susaeta, Andres ; Soto, Jose R.; Rossi, Frederick ; de Grammont, Paloma Carton; Messina, William A.; Koch, Frank H.; Gomez, Demian ; Hulcr, Jiri. 2020. A bioeconomic model for estimating potential economic damages from a hypothetical Asian beetle introduced via future trade with Cuba
- Potter, Kevin M.; Canavin, Julie C.; Koch, Frank H.. 2020. Chapter 6 - A forest health retrospective: national and regional results from 20 years of Insect and Disease Survey data
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.. 2020. Chapter 4 - Drought and moisture surplus patterns in the conterminous United States: 2018, 2016 2018, and 2014 2018
- Potter, Kevin M.; Paschke, Jeanine L.; Koch, Frank H.; Berryman, Erin M.. 2020. Chapter 2 - Large-scale patterns of insect and disease activity in the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii from the national Insect and Disease Survey, 2018
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Parisien, Marc-André ; Barber, Quinn ; Koch, Frank H.; Burton, Cole ; Mansuy, Nicolas ; Campioni, Fabio ; Choudhury, Salimur. 2020. Assessing the trade-offs between timber supply and wildlife protection goals in boreal landscapes
- Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Koch, Frank H.; Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Lihou, Mary T.. 2019. Cannabis legalization by states reduces illegal growing on US national forests
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John. 2016. Chapter 4: 1-Year (2014 , 3-Year (2012 2014 ) , and 5-Year (2010 2014) Maps of Drought and Moisture Surplus for the Conterminous United States
- Coyle, David ; Barnes, Brittany ; Klepzig, Kier ; Koch, Frank ; Morris, Lawrence ; Nowak, John ; Otrosina, William ; Smith, William ; Gandhi, Kamal K.. 2020. Abiotic and biotic factors affecting loblolly pine health in the southeastern United States
- Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W.. 2015. Chapter 4: Drought Patterns in the Conterminous United States, 2012
- Guo, Qinfeng ; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Riitters, Kurt H.. 2019. Impacts of nonnative species on the health of natural and planted forests
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulton. John W.,. 2019. Chapter 4 - Drought and moisture surplus patterns in the conterminous United States: 2017, 2015-2017, and 2013-2017
- Potter, Kevin M.; Paschke, Jeanine L.; Koch, Frank H.; Zweifler, Mark O.. 2019. Chapter 2 - Large-scale patterns of insect and disease activity in the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii from the national Insect and Disease Survey, 2017
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Chen, Cuicui ; Liu, Ning ; MacQuarrie, Christian J. K.; Koch, Frank H.; Venette, Robert ; Ryall, Krista. 2019. Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach
- Holmes, Thomas ; Koch, Frank. 2019. Bark Beetle Epidemics, Life Satisfaction, and Economic Well-Being
- Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.. 2012. Large-scale patterns of insect and disease activity in the conterminous United States and Alaska, 2006
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.; Smith, William D.. 2012. High-Resolution Mapping of Drought Conditions
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Chen, Cuicui ; MacQuarrie, Chris J.K.; Ryall, Krista ; Venette, Robert ; Koch, Frank H.. 2019. Acceptance sampling for cost-effective surveillance of emerald ash borer in urban environments
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Venette, Robert C.; Swystun, Tom ; Fournier, Ronald E.; Marcotte, Mireille ; Chen, Yongguang ; Turgeon, Jean J.. 2019. Optimizing surveillance strategies for early detection of invasive alien species
- Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Parisien, Marc-André ; Swystun, Tom ; Barber, Quinn ; Burton, A. Cole; Choudhury, Salimur ; Liu, Ning. 2019. Prioritizing restoration of fragmented landscapes for wildlife conservation: A graph-theoretic approach
- Potter, Kevin M.; Hargrove, William; Koch, Frank H.. 2015. Assessing forest tree risk of extinction and genetic degradation from climate change
- Koch, Frank H.; John W. Coulston.,. 2015. 1-year (2013), 3-year (2011-2013), and 5-year (2009-2013) drought maps for the conterminous United States
- Koch, Frank H.; Hennon, Paul E.. 2012. Drought and climate
- Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.. 2011. Emerging forest pest threat: Redbay ambrosia beetle and laurel wilt
- Koch, Frank H.; Ambrose, Mark J.; Yemshanov, Denys ; Wiseman, P. Eric; Cowett, F.D.. 2018. Modeling urban distributions of host trees for invasive forest insects in the eastern and central USA: A three-step approach using field inventory data
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.. 2018. Chapter 4 - Moisture deficit and surplus in the conterminous United States for three time windows: 2016, 2014-2016, and 2012-2016
- Jaime, Xavier A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Koch, Frank H.; Nelson, Stacy A. C.. 2017. Spread of common native and invasive grasses and ruderal trees following anthropogenic disturbances in a tropical dry forest
- Formby, John P.; Rodgers, John C.; Koch, Frank H.; Krishnan, Natraj; Duerr, Donald A.; Riggins, John J.. 2017. Cold tolerance and invasive potential of the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus) in the eastern United States
- Yemshanov, Denys; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Venette, Robert; Studens, Kala; Fournier, Ronald E.; Swystun, Tom; Turgeon, Jean J.; Gao, Yulin. 2017. A safety rule approach to surveillance and eradication of biological invasions
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Fournier, Ronald; Cook, Gericke; Turgeon, Jean J.. 2017. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks
- Hastings, John M.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Megalos, Mark; Jetton, Robert M.. 2017. Prioritizing conservation seed banking locations for imperiled hemlock species using multi-attribute frontier mapping
- Yemshanov, Denys; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Venette, Robert C.; Fournier, Ronald E.; Turgeon, Jean J.. 2017. Robust surveillance and control of invasive species using a scenario optimization approach
- Norman, Steve; Koch, Frank H.; Hargrove, William W.. 2016. Review of broad-scale drought monitoring of forests: Toward an integrated data mining approach
- Koch, Frank H.; Prestemon, Jeff; Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Hinkley, Everett A.; Chase, John M.. 2016. Predicting cannabis cultivation on national forests using a rational choice framework
- Vogt, James T. (JT); Koch, Frank H.. 2016. The Evolving Role of Forest Inventory and Analysis Data in Invasive Insect Research
- Norman, Steve; Koch, Frank H.; Hargrove, William W.. 2016. Detecting and monitoring large-scale drought effects on forests: toward an integrated approach
- Ambrose, Mark J.; Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Wiseman, P. Eric. 2015. Modeling urban host tree distributions for invasive forest insects using a two-step approach
- Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Oswalt, Christopher M.; Iannone, Basil V.. 2016. Data, data everywhere: detecting spatial patterns in fine-scale ecological information collected across a continent
- Yemshanov, Denys; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Venette, Robert; Lyons, D. Barry; Scarr, Taylor; Ryall, Krista; Leung, Brian. 2015. Optimal allocation of invasive species surveillance with the maximum expected coverage concept
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Haack, Robert A.. 2015. Towards reliable mapping of biosecurity risk: incorporating uncertainty and decision-makers risk aversion
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ducey, Mark. 2015. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys. 2015. Identifying and assessing critical uncertainty thresholds in a forest pest risk model
- Coyle, David R.; Klepzig, Kier D.; Koch, Frank H.; Morris, Lawrence A.; Nowak, John T.; Oak, Steven W.; Otrosina, William J.; Smith, William D.; Gandhi, Kamal J.K.. 2015. A review of southern pine decline in North America
- Withrow, J.R.; Smith, E.L.; Koch, F.H.; Yemshanov, D.. 2015. Managing outbreaks of invasive species - a new method to prioritize preemptive quarantine efforts across large geographic regions
- Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.. 2014. Patterns of forest phylogenetic community structure across the United States and their possible forest health implications
- Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W.. 2014. Chapter4 - Drought patterns in the conterminous United States and Hawaii.
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Lyons, D. Barry; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Scarr, Taylor; Koehler, Klaus. 2014. There is no silver bullet: the value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Haack, Robert A.; Magarey, Roger D.. 2014. Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel
- Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W.. 2013. Recent drought conditions in the Conterminous United States
- Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Abt, Karen L.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.. 2013. An economic assessment of mountain pine beetle timber salvage in the west
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Haack, Robert A.. 2013. Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark J.; Haack, Robert A.; Siltanen, Marty; Wilson, Kirsty. 2013. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker s perspective
- Kriticos, Darren J.; Venette, Robert C.; Baker, Richard H.A.; Brunel, Sarah; Koch, Frank H.; Rafoss, Trond; van der Werf, Wopke; Worner, Susan P.. 2013. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty. 2013. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark J.; Siltanen, Marty; Wilson, Kirsty; Koehler, Klaus. 2013. Exploring critical uncertainties in pathway assessments of human-assisted introductions of alien forest species in Canada
- Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W.. 2013. An improved method for standardized mapping of drought conditions
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Koehler, Klaus. 2013. Mapping ecological risks with a portfolio-based technique: incorporating uncertainty and decision-making preferences
- McKelvey, Steven C.; Smith, William D.; Koch, Frank. 2012. Probabilistic commodity-flow-based focusing of monitoring activities to facilitate early detection of Phytophthora ramorum outbreaks
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.; Smith, William D.. 2012. Mapping drought conditions using multi-year windows
- Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.. 2012. A revised sudden oak death risk map to facilitate national surveys
- Costanza, Jennifer K.; Hulcr, Jiri; Koch, Frank H.; Earnhardt, Todd; McKerrow, Alexa J.; Dunn, Rob R.; Collazo, Jaime A.. 2012. Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Koehler, Klaus. 2012. Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Magarey, Roger D.; Smith, William D.. 2012. Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Lyons, D. Barry; Ducey, Mark; Koehler, Klaus. 2012. A dominance-based approach to map risks of ecological invasions in the presence of severe uncertainty
- Magarey, R.D.; Borchert, D.M.; Engle, J.S.; Garcia-Colunga, M; Koch, Frank H.; al, et. 2011. Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Colunga-Garcia, Manuel; Magarey, Roger D.; Smith, William D.. 2011. Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many
- Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.. 2010. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment
- Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Smith, William. 2010. Detection capacity, information gaps and the design of surveillance programs for invasive forest pests
- Koch, Frank H.. 2009. Marine cargo imports and forest pest introductions
- Koch, Frank H.. 2009. Relating lightning data to fire occurrence data
- Venette, Robert C.; Kriticos, Darren J.; Magarey, Roger D.; Koch, Frank H.; Baker, Richard H.A.; Worner, Susan P.; Gomez Raboteaux, Nadilia N.; McKenney, Daniel W.; Dobesberger, Erhard J.; Yemshanov, Denys; De Barro, Paul J.; Hutchison, William D.; Fowler, Glenn; Kalaris, Tom M.; Pedlar, John. 2010. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; McKenney, Daniel W.; Smith, William D.. 2009. Evaluating critical uncertainty thresholds in a spatial model of forest pest invasion risk
- Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; McKenney, Daniel W.; Smith, William D.. 2009. Evaluating critical uncertainty thresholds in a spatial model of forest pest invasion risk
- Yemshanov, Denys; McKenney, Daniel; Pedlar, John; Koch, Frank; Cook, David. 2009. Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species
Research Highlights
Examining the Role of Humans in the Spread of Invasive Species
Year: 2015
Forest Service scientists and their collaborators have contributed innovative research to the field of forest pest risk assessment by focusing on pathways for the human-assisted spread of forest pest species, including merchandise imports and firewood transport. Research results anticipate where and...