Mark A. Finney

My current research focuses on the study of physical processes in fire spread.  Use of laboratory and field experiments allows us to examine many of the fire behaviors that we do not understand and cannot predict today (such as thresholds in spread, crown fire). Another expression of my research includes fire simulation for purposes of fire risk assessment, which has been done in direct support of the development of two major fire management systems (WFDSS and FPA). The FSPro model is used in WFDSS to estimate the probability of impact of an ongoing large fire. A similar model (FSim) is used to estimate the burn probability and variability in fire behavior across large landscapes.  FSim is used for national, regional, and local risk modeling in the US.

Fire behavior fundamentals are key to understanding the opportunities for improving fire behavior modeling. Although there are many fire behavior models, there is llittle understanding of ther dynamical interactions of phyiscal processes that produces spread and behavior.  One consequence of this is that there is no ability to anticipate threshold-type behaviors of surface or crown fires (spread vs. no spread transitions). Only by understanding the physics of these behaviors can we hope to improve management and mitigation. Quantitative risk analysis is essential to evaluating cost-effective operations in fire management, whether those are fuel treatment operations or fire suppression operations. We must continue to use current modeling tools to address these issues while pursuing fundamental research that will ultimately lead to improved modeling.

My research interests include fundamental processes in fire spread as well as applications of fire behavior models for fire management decision support and actuarial risk assessment.

Principal importance of my research using fire behavior experiments is to understand fire behavior processes well enough to produce simplified physical models of fire beahvior that will improve operational predictions, planning and mitigation, as well as training.  We must explain fire behavior, not just model it, if we are to realize better opportunities of managing it and living with wildland fire.  For other research, quantiative risk analysis has now become practical and allows communication of wildfire risk and impacts to the public and agency audiences in ways not possible before.