Climate change will likely cause impacts that are species specific and significant; modeling is critical to better understand potential changes in suitable habitat. We use empirical, abundance-based habitat models utilizing decision tree-based ensemble methods to explore potential changes of 134 tree species habitats in the eastern United States (https://www.nrs.fs.usda.gov/atlas).To help interpret and add value to these outputs, we assigned and calculated Modification Factors for disturbance and biological factors that cannot be specifically assessed with the empirical RandomForest approach. We also use a spatially explicit cellular model, SHIFT, to calculate colonization potentials, based on the abundance of the species, the distances between occupied and unoccupied cells and the fragmented nature of the landscape. By combining results from the three efforts, we are estimating potential impacts that can be used to aid in management decisions under climate change. These tools are demonstrated for one species, black oak (Quercus velutina
), in northern Wisconsin.
species distribution modeling
eastern United States
Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Peters, Matthew P. 2010. Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees in the eastern United States. In: Azevedo, Joao Carlos; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, Jose; Pinto, Maria Alice, eds. Forest landscapes and global change-new frontiers in management, conservation and restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference; 2010 September 21-27; Bragan a, Portugal: 135-140.