Pattern analysis of eastern spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana dispersal

Abstract

Dispersal has been proposed as an important mechanism in the broad-scale synchronisation of insect outbreaks by linking spatially disjunct populations. Evidence suggests that dispersal is influenced by landscape structure, phenology, temperature, and air currents; however, the details remain unclear due to the difficulty of quantifying dispersal. In this study, we used data on the abundance and distribution of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana larvae (potential dispersers) and adult male moths (dispersers) to make inference on the effects of air currents and host-species abundance on dispersal. Hierarchical-Bayesian and inverse modeling was used to explore 4 dispersal models: 1) isotropic dispersal; 2) directional-dispersal; 3) directional-and-host-species dispersal; and 4) host-species dispersal. Despite their strong dependence on balsam fir Abies balsamea and spruce species Picea spp., the mapped basal area of these host species did not influence the pattern of dispersed moths.

Citation

Anderson, Dean P.; Sturtevant, Brian R. 2011. Pattern analysis of eastern spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana dispersal. Ecography. 34: 488-497.