Projecting insect voltinism under high and low greenhouse gas emission conditions

Shi Chen; Shelby J. Fleischer; Patrick C. Tobin; Michael C. Saunders

doi:10.1603/EN10099

Projecting insect voltinism under high and low greenhouse gas emission conditions

Formally Refereed

Authors:	Shi Chen, Shelby J. Fleischer, Patrick C. Tobin, Michael C. Saunders
Year:	2011
Type:	Scientific Journal
Station:	Northern Research Station
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.1603/EN10099
Source:	Environmental Entomology. 40(3): 505-515.

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Abstract

We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), voltinism that may occur with climate projections developed from the average of three climate models using two different future emissions scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC).

Keywords

greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, phenology, voltinism, grape berry moth

Citation

Chen, Shi; Fleischer, Shelby J.; Tobin, Patrick C.; Saunders, Michael C. 2011. Projecting insect voltinism under high and low greenhouse gas emission conditions. Environmental Entomology. 40(3): 505-515.