Abstract
Our objective was to describe the trends of Vermont stumpage prices for major sawtimber species and products over the approximately last quarter century and propose a likely explanation of changes that we observed. Annual percentage rates of change (APR) were estimated for 10 forest products in Vermont from the third quarter of 1981 (1981Q3) to the first quarter of 2007 (2007Q1) when the price series was discontinued. In addition, we tested for changes in the percentage rate within the period. We found differences in the trend of APR between hardwood sawtimber and softwood sawtimber. With one exception, price trends differed significantly between 1981Q3 to 1992Q2 and 1992Q3 to 2007Q1 for inflation-adjusted (real) hardwood sawtimber prices. There were no differences in price trends for any of the softwood sawtimber species between the two periods. Real price trends for pulpwood and firewood were similar to those for hardwood sawtimber. We also examined stumpage price trends for selected species in adjacent New Hampshire from 1985Q1 to 2011Q1. Stumpage price trends for like species and proximate time periods in Vermont and New Hampshire were similar, but no statistical tests were done. The direction of trend (positive or negative) was the same for sugar maple, red oak, yellow birch, and white pine, and the magnitude of APR was similar for sugar maple, yellow birch, and white pine.
Citation
Sendak, Paul E.; McEvoy, Thom J. 2013. Vermont stumpage price trends revisited: with comparisons to New Hampshire. Forest Products Journal. 63(7-8): 238-246.
