Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables

Consuelo Brandeis; Dayton M. Lambert

doi:10.1016/j.jfe.2014.09.002

Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables

Informally Refereed

Authors:	Consuelo Brandeis, Dayton M. Lambert
Year:	2014
Type:	Scientific Journal
Station:	Southern Research Station
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2014.09.002
Source:	Journal of Forest Economics 20 (2014) 305–315

Download PDF (1107.9 KB)

Cite

Abstract

We explored forecasting of county roundwood pulpwood produc-tion with county-vector autoregressive (CVAR) and spatial panelvector autoregressive (SPVAR) methods. The analysis used timberproducts output data for the state of Florida, together with a set ofmacro-economic variables. Overall, we found the SPVAR specifica-tion produced forecasts with lower error rates compared to CVARspecifications. Nonetheless, high forecast errors across countiesrevealed the uncertainty associated with projecting volumes ofcounty pulpwood production.Published by Elsevier GmbH. on behalf of Department of ForestEconomics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå.

Keywords

County pulpwood forecastVector autoregressiveSpatial panel VAR

Citation

Brandeis, Consuelo; Lambert, Dayton M. 2014. Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables. Journal of Forest Economics 20 (2014) 305 315 11 p.