||Patrick Tobin, Andrew M. Liebhold, E. Anderson Roberts, Laura M. Blackburn
||Northern Research Station
||In: Venette, R.C., ed.; Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species. Wallingford, UK: CAB International: 131-144. Chapter 9.
Estimating rates of spread and generating projections of future range expansion for invasive alien species is a key process in the development of management guidelines and policy. Critical needs to estimate spread rates include the availability of surveys to characterize the spatial distribution of an invading species and the application of analytical methods to interpret survey data. In this chapter, we demonstrate the use of three methods, (i) square-root area regression, (ii) distance regression and (iii) boundary displacement, to estimate the rate of spread in the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, in the USA. The gypsy moth is a non-native species currently invading North America. An extensive amount of spatial and temporal distributional data exists for this invader. Consequently, it provides an ideal case study to demonstrate the use of methods to estimate spread rates.
Tobin, Patrick, C.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Roberts, E. Anderson; Blackburn, Laura M. 2015. Estimating spread rates of non-native species: the gypsy moth as a case study. In: Venette, R.C., ed.; Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species. Wallingford, UK: CAB International: 131-144. Chapter 9.