Adapting oak management in an age of ongoing mesophication but warming climate
| Authors: | Louis R. Iverson, Matthew P. Peters, Stephen N. Matthews, Anantha Prasad, Todd Hutchinson, Jarel Bartig, Joanne Rebbeck, Dan Yaussy, Susan Stout, Greg Nowacki |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Type: | Paper (invited, offered, keynote) |
| Station: | Northern Research Station |
| Source: | e-Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-237. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station |
Abstract
Rising temperatures and variable precipitation events leading to droughts and floods will likelyincrease in frequency. We present climate models with bracketed scenarios of daily temperature and precipitation
from 1980 to 2099 showing increasing heat and drought for much of the country throughout this century. We
then model and map potential changes in suitable habitat for ~130 tree species (10 x 10 km to 20 x 20 km) in
the Eastern United States. Potential adaptability to changing climate was evaluated by literature assessment of
biological and disturbance traits. Overall, trends show many species with shrinking habitat suitability but also
several drought-tolerant species (especially oaks) with increased habitat. However, current oak regeneration is
often poor - hence management assistance is needed to ensure an ongoing, thriving oak component. Long-term
research in Ohio has shown that prescribed fire and thinning can provide a successful path for oak regeneration,
depending on the moisture regime within the landscape. These data-informed models of oak regeneration
highlight potential sites for oak regeneration across a 17-county region in southeastern Ohio. Silvicultural
treatments promoting future increasers (e.g., oak) and finding refugia for decreasers can then be devised as a
means to adapt to the changing climate.