Future Search Conference Notes
Park City, UT - October 6-8, 1997
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Wildland
Fire Research Future Search Conference Notes Park City, UT - October 6-8, 1997 |
Pre-1960 | 1960-1974 | 1975-1985 | 1985-1990 | 1991-Present
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| Pre-1960 [back to top] |
Learn to ski and become aware of forests, mountains and snow Rock and roll lives Travel around the world Born! Growing up babyboomer Growing up in a small, safe Swedish community Basic values in a small, rural community See houses along mountains from Denver to Pueblo See father's dissatisfaction with social perception that all fire is bad; father a district ranger Immigrate from Cuba Grow up in New York City; experience Eastern U.S. forests Fight forest fires |
Soldiers back from WWII; going to school; working in forests; increased use of natural resources; major events driven by regional overpopulation Federal agencies (USFS, NPS) born 1910 Weeks Act 1933 10 AM policy National planning and management 1930s public works projects in the West Industrial revolution Sand County Almanac by Aldo Leopold Gandhi dies Holocaust Atomic age; U.S. bombing of Japan; "stop, drop and hide" 1957 Sputnik testing in New Mexico Atomic testing in New Mexico Smokey Bear Technology to attack fire Large fire events shape fire management policy |
1910 Fires in northern Rockies 1922 Forest Service hires Harry Gisborne as fire scientist Beginning of fire prevention; suppressing "all" fires; aerial firefighting 1925 Fire research at Priest River Gisborne develops fire danger meter Fire environmental studies 1912 Plummer compiles fire statistics and maps of 1910 fires and lightning fire monograph 1910 Frederick Clements studies and publishes reports on fire and succession on lodgepole pine Pulaski and radios used in firefighting Fires in the Selway 1937 Journal of Forestry states that lightning-caused fires are <5% 1937 Blackwater Canyon fire, 15 dead, leads to research and, after WWII, to professional firefighting 1940s & 1950s Harold Weaver works on the relationships between fire and ponderosa pine ecosystems 1949 Mann Gulch 1950s Modern Wildland Fire Science born 1950s droughts in Southern U.S. affect fire policy Fire labs established 1954 Southern Fire Lab started Regional fire danger systems Chainsaw and brush hook 1959 Forest Fire: Control and Use published NFDRS Application of WWII technology to fire suppression 1958 Tall Timbers founded |
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| 1960-1974 [back to top] |
College graduation, marriage, and children Teach at universities JFK; Peace Corps in Nepal Education; anti-war demonstrations; learn about agent orange and tropical forest destruction. MS fire science; ties to fire lab Ph.D fire First position in the Forest Service Attend Biswell Field Day at Whitaker Forest Fight first wildfire as a 15-year old Boy Scout Hot Shot Crew job Permanent position in fire research Graduate high school, head West Dad takes me on my first wildfire Career appointment Live in South Africa; see how influential culture is to the choices we make First fire jump Ph.D. in fire ecology Leave Chicago; begin to experience outdoors firsthand Beckwith fire escapes Start smokejumping Job in Yosemite Work on USFS Fire Crew Start of a lifetime friendship College textbook learning Find natural science; leave home Camping in the Rockies Burn with Henry Wright's crew Still teaching atmospheric science Chance to do things Meet some of the "gods" of fire research |
Jet aircraft Bay of Pigs Reality check U.S. civil rights movement begins Kennedy assassination Apollo program Scientific proof of global change Silent Spring by Rachael Carson Wilderness Act Vietnam; distrust of large organizations; belief that government (authority) would lie and that those not in authority could challenge effectively Johnson "credibility gap" Flower children vs. mainstream Feminist movement Feminine Mystique by Betty Friedan First humans on the moon Environmental laws Earth Day Satellites, reality of earth limits Population Bomb by Paul Ehrlich Love Canal FIRESCOPE and Interagency cooperative fire management |
Sleeping Child fire Cooper's fire ecology paper published Early 1960s CE Van Wagner begins experimental crown fires at Petawawa 1962 First Tall Timbers Fire Conference Northern Fire Lab dedicated 1964 Synoptic Weather Types Associated with Critical Fire Weather published Rx burning, Vietnam style Retarded drops, helitorch NPS and USFS experiments on prescribed natural fire Leopold report on fire and wildlife in parks First "Let Burn" policy in West Controversies: FS clearcutting Rothermel fire model Clean Air Act FIRESCOPE ICS due to fires in California First university fire programs Fire shelters; foam; Nomex America Burning report issued by National Fire Protection and Control Administration First wilderness fire management plans NPS fire program challenged Research moves into large-scale fire systems Fire Danger Rating System in use Kessell's gradient modeling research at Glacier NP AVHRR monitoring of fire events DMSP-OLS mapping of active fires Fire histories developed in SW Pine barrens in New Jersey burned regularly to manage pitch pine ecosystems Effects of Fire series published |
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| 1975-1985 [back to top] |
Raise 2 children; conduct research; USFS appointment First fire season Finish college Active fire research Graduate high school First FS job, fire lookout Involved in snow and avalanche forecasting and control; FS management Begin physiology/fire effects Decide upon career with FS |
AVHRR launched Increase in sensitivity to tropical forest destruction Nixon, first confirmation that the government lied; government credibility declines Sustained economic growth erodes sense of individual responsibility 1976-1997 Pacific has higher average SSTs; tropical land masses drying out and accelerating deforestation Computer Age, PCs give computing power to the masses Consumption increases CFCs tagged to ozone decline 1981 U.S. has huge budget deficits; Graham-Ruddman Act Star wars/Space shuttle 1982-1983 El Nino alters climate and biomass burning |
Luke & McArthur (1978) publish Bushfires in Australia BEHAVE system FIRECAST Peak funding for fire research New fire policy recognizes natural role Interdisciplinary research emphasis, mostly site focus 1981 first woman smokejumper Recognition of "exotics" problem 1982 S. Pyne begins publishing fire info Exploding interest in and funding for fire ecology research Urban interface issue escalates |
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| 1985-1990 [back to top] |
Career change Seasonal job with FS On first overhead team Move to Missoula, begin studying lightening and fire Master's degree in forestry Work with pine beetle crew in Colorado Front Range Move to DC Mop-up fires at Moose Creek Build house |
Booming economy Domestic use of space technology Persian Gulf War, burning oil wells Terrorism Global awareness increases Recognition of climate change, Global Change Program Clean Air Act Earth Summit at Rio, growing recognition of deforestation concerns and global interconnections Iron curtain falls, define a new enemy Access to former USSR and China opens Global economy develops Bull stockmarket |
1986 Urban interface, "Wildfire Strikes Home" Crow's 1988 Forest Science paper on fire and oaks 1988 news coverage of Yellowstone fires shows lack of understanding of fire as a natural process and sets back the reintroduction of the natural role of fire Major wildland/urban interface trials began to rollback "good samaritan" protections for fire managers Satellite maps, fuels, and NFDRS Integration of fire/vegetation research interest Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Dude fire Major reorganization of FS Fire Research More complex ecological models incorporating disturbance Development of fire remote sensing approaches accelerates |
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| 1991-Present [back to top] |
Teach ecosystem management and disturbance regimes Join FS research; shift emphasis from snow to fire Discover whole system dynamics Kids are gone! Fire effects project leader One child out of college, one to go Become fire management staff officer Start work in Russia Competitive grants Moved to Washington Office, FS Fire Research Plan for second half of career |
Clean Air Act, 1990 amendments Republicans take over House and Senate; contract with America National Defense drive for science declines Human population growth curve steepens Softening of nationalism Laptop computers; Internet; GIS, GPS; information overload 1995 hurricanes Increased micromanagement by Congress (prescribed fire, fire suppression, and commodity production) Brazil and Indonesia on fire El Nino |
DOI Wildland Fire Research Initiative Real-time georeferenced information on fire spread available, but rarely used South Canyon fatalities Major interface fires; Spokane, Oakland Record fire seasons Firefighters trapped at Dome and Sheppard Fire policy recognizes natural role; leads to more confusion Public distrust of FS ecosystem management goals Wide recognition of paradox: suppressing fires now means more intense fires later Integration of human values with fire effects begins Focus on global effects of fire/fuel/climate interactions Landscape context of fire begins to be considered Basic behavior research and education Recognition of human factors in accidents and fatalities IMRT Reports WFAS on net FARSITE; 3D fire Recognition of relationship between oak regeneration failure and fire suppression recognized Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Application of GIS to land-based observations of fire history and fire behavior Reintroducing fire to ecosystem Fire shelter study Tridata study of firefighter culture Fire Policy Review SNEP AVIRIS fuels database NWT Crown Fire Experiment Regional-scale estimates of change in fire regimes EPA; FACA air quality |
Title: RMRS-P-1:
Wildland Fire Research - Future Search Conference Notes: Appendix
C
Electronic Publish Date: December 16, 1998
Expires: Indefinite
Last Update: August
19, 2008