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Keyword: risk assessment

How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface

Publications Posted on: June 12, 2014
Recent fire seasons in the western United States are some of the most damaging and costly on record. Wildfires in the wildlandurban interface on the Colorado Front Range, resulting in thousands of homes burned and civilian fatalities, although devastating, are not without historical reference.

Hazardous fuel treatments, suppression cost impacts, and risk mitigation

Publications Posted on: September 17, 2013
Land management agencies face uncertain tradeoffs regarding investments in preparedness and fuels management versus future suppression costs and impacts to valued resources and assets. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatments allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, and can facilitate tradeoff analysis.

A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Publications Posted on: June 27, 2013
Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations.

Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

Publications Posted on: June 11, 2013
This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal fire managers and partners.

A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning

Publications Posted on: April 29, 2013
The financial impact of wildfire management within the USDA Forest Service challenges the ability of the agency to meet societal demands and maintain forest health.

A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management

Publications Posted on: April 17, 2013
Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires.

Wildfire exposure to analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Publications Posted on: April 15, 2013
We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests.

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs

Publications Posted on: March 18, 2013
Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatment effectiveness allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land-management objectives.

Risk assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin

Publications Posted on: February 28, 2013
Species distribution models for 147 bird species have been derived using climate, elevation, and distribution of current tree species as potential predictors (Matthews et al. 2011). In this case study, a risk matrix was developed for two bird species (fig. A2-5), with projected change in bird habitat (the x axis) based on models of changing suitable habitat resulting from changing climate and tree species habitat.

A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

Publications Posted on: October 07, 2011
An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data.

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