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Keyword: simulation

User's guide to the Event Monitor: Part of Prognosis Model Version 6

Publications Posted on: March 25, 2020
Describes how to use the Event Monitor to dynamically invoke management activities in the Prognosis Model for Stand Development. The program accepts statements of conditions -- expressed as logical expressions of stand-state variables -- to be met and sets of activities to be simulated when the conditions are met. The combination of a condition and a set of activities is considered a rule of stand management.

Individual variation and ecotypic niches in simulations of the impact of climatic volatility

Publications Posted on: October 02, 2019
Expectations of the impacts of climatic variation on species can depend on whether and how intraspecific variability is incorporated in models. Coefficients of variation from tree-ring records of Pinus albicaulis through time and across space were used to parameterize volatility and individuality, respectively.

Habitat fragmentation reduces genetic diversity and connectivity of the Mexican spotted owl: A simulation study using empirical resistance models

Publications Posted on: October 03, 2018
We evaluated how differences between two empirical resistance models for the same geographic area affected predictions of gene flow processes and genetic diversity for the Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). The two resistance models represented the landscape under lowand high-fragmentation parameters.

A comparison of regression methods for model selection in individual-based landscape genetic analysis

Publications Posted on: November 09, 2017
Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate-induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time.

Importance of fuel treatment for limiting moderate-to-high intensity fire: Findings from comparative fire modeling

Publications Posted on: September 26, 2017
Context: Wildland fire intensity influences natural communities, soil properties, erosion, and sequestered carbon. Measuring effectiveness of fuel treatment for reducing area of higher intensity unplanned fire is argued to be more meaningful than determining effect on total unplanned area burned.

Pushing the envelope in genetic analysis of species invasion

Publications Posted on: September 15, 2016
How a species spreads once introduced into a new environment is a major question in landscape genetics. When the species in question is a potential disease vector, the findings are important not only for fundamental science, but can impact applied science and public health as well. In this issue of Molecular Ecology Medley et al.

User's Guide to the Parallel Processing Extension of the Prognosis Model

Publications Posted on: May 12, 2016
The Parallel Processing Extension (PPE) of the Prognosis Model was designed to analyze responses of numerous stands to coordinated management and pest impacts that operate at the landscape level of forests. Vegetation-related resource supply analysis can be readily performed for a thousand or more sample stands for projections 400 years into the future.

Prognosis model for stand development

Publications Posted on: May 12, 2016
Describes a set of computer programs for developing prognoses of the development of existing stand under alternative regimes of management. Calibration techniques, modeling procedures, and a procedure for including stochastic variation are described. Implementation of the system for lodgepole pine, including assessment of losses attributed to an infestation of mountain pine beetle, is described.

Hydrologic calibration and validation of SWAT in a snow-dominated Rocky Mountain watershed, Montana, USA

Publications Posted on: July 28, 2015
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow-dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT).

Performance of species richness estimators across assemblage types and survey parameters

Publications Posted on: August 07, 2014
Aim: A raw count of the species encountered across surveys usually underestimates species richness. Statistical estimators are often less biased. Nonparametric estimators of species richness are widely considered the least biased, but no particular estimator has consistently performed best.