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Keyword: wildfire risk assessment

Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona)

Publications Posted on: February 13, 2019
How did the forest and community get to the point where they were willing to take on managing a fire of this size and duration for resource benefit and hazard reduction? Science has recognized for decades that many forested ecosystems of the American West are shifting away from historically fire-adapted conditions. Beginning in the 1970’s a small handful of managers recognized this issue and developed wildland fire use concepts.

Prescribed burning and wildfire risk in the 1998 fire season in Florida

Publications Posted on: September 21, 2018
Measures of understory burning activity in and around FIA plots in northeastern Florida were not significantly associated with reduced burning probability in the extreme fire season of 1998. In this unusual year, burn probability was greatest on ordinarily wetter sites, especially baldcypress stands, and positively associated with understory vegetation. Moderate amounts of lightning also were associated with greater burning probability.

Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]

Publications Posted on: January 24, 2017
Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents.

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

Publications Posted on: September 24, 2013
Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and interaction with social and ecological values.

The science and opportunity of wildfire risk assessment (Chapter 6)

Publications Posted on: October 01, 2012
Wildfire management within the United States continues to increase in complexity, as the converging drivers of (1) increased development into fire-prone areas, (2) accumulated fuels from historic management practices, and (3) climate change potentially magnify threats to social and ecological values (Bruins et al., 2010; Gude et al., 2008; Littell et al., 2009).

Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

Publications Posted on: September 21, 2011
Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon pools to account for stochastic wildfire occurrence.

A comparative risk assessment framework for wildland fire management: the 2010 cohesive strategy science report

Publications Posted on: September 09, 2011
The FLAME Act of 2009 requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Interior to submit to Congress a Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy. In this report, we explore the general science available for a risk-based approach to fire and fuels management and suggest analyses that may be applied at multiple scales to inform decisionmaking and tradeoff analysis.