Alan Ager

Firesheds are a way to delineate where fires ignite and are likely to, or not to, spread to communities and expose buildings. The fireshed map shows the source of exposure to fire. The fireshed registry is the geospatial portal that portrays the past, present, and future in terms of agency investments in forest and fuel management in relation to historical and predicted fire activity.   

We integrated the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator with FSim, a large wildfire simulator to study how management policies affect future wildfire regimes.  The model leverages decades of research and development on the respective forest growth and wildfire simulation models, and their integration creates a strategic forest landscape model that has a high degree of transparency in the existing user communities.  We are using the model to examine forest fire and management policy issues on national forests in the western US.

This project investigated the issue of radionuclide resuspension from wildland fires in areas contaminated by the Chernobyl nuclear power plant explosion. The work was originated from a scientific exchange among scientists from the USDA Forest Service, Ukraine and Belarus that was organized by USFS International Programs to assess science and technology gaps related to wildfire risk management.  One of the products from that exchange was the development and application of a wildfire risk modeling system to predict likely hotspots for large fires and where wildfire ignitions will most likely result in significant radionuclide (Cesium, 137Cs) resuspension. The system was also used to identify locations for ignition prevention and strategic fuel breaks to reduce future emissions.