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Michelle A. Day

Michelle Day

Biological Scientist

Address: 
3200 SW Jefferson Way
Corvallis, OR 97331
Phone: 
541-758-7768
Contact Michelle A. Day

Featured Publications

Day, Michelle A.; Houtman, Rachel M.; Belavenutti, Pedro; Ringo, Chris; Ager, Alan; Bassett, Steve, 2021. An assessment of forest and woodland restoration priorities to address wildfire risk in New Mexico
Barros, Ana M. G.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Houtman, Rachel; Ager, Alan, 2021. Contrasting the role of human- and lightning-caused wildfires on future fire regimes on a Central Oregon landscape
Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Ringo, Chris; Evers, Cody R.; Alcasena, Fermin J.; Houtman, Rachel M.; Scanlon, Michael; Ellersick, Tania, 2021. Development and application of the fireshed registry

Publications

Day, Michelle A.; Ager, Alan, 2021. Assessment of wildfire exposure to public water supply areas in Oregon [Chapter 8]
Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Waltz, Amy; Nigrelli, Mark; Vogler, Kevin C.; Lata, Mary, 2021. Balancing ecological and economic objectives in restoration of fire-adapted forests: Case study from the Four Forest Restoration Initiative
Ager, Alan; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Alcasena, Fermin J.; Houtman, Rachel, 2021. Planning for future fire: Scenario analysis of an accelerated fuel reduction plan for the western United States
Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Alcasena, Fermin J.; Evers, Cody R.; Short, Karen C.; Grenfell, Isaac C., 2021. Predicting Paradise: Modeling future wildfire disasters in the western US
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Kalabokidis, Kostas; Troumbis, Andreas; Day, Michelle A.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Ager, Alan, 2021. Socio-ecological perceptions of wildfire management and effects in Greece
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Galatsidas, Spyros; Papalampros, Lampros; Day, Michelle A., 2021. Spatial optimization and tradeoffs of alternative forest management scenarios in Macedonia, Greece
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Ager, Alan; Evers, Cody; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Day, Michelle A., 2020. Demographic analysis of transboundary wildfire exposure in the Western U.S.
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A., 2020. Development of comprehensive fuel management strategies for reducing wildfire risk in Greece
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Kalabokidis, Kostas; Day, Michelle A.; Kopsachilis, Vasilis, 2020. Evaluating socioecological wildfire effects in Greece with a novel numerical index
Zald, Harold S. J.; Kerns, Becky K.; Day, Michelle A., 2020. Limited effects of long-term repeated season and interval of prescribed burning on understory vegetation compositional trajectories and indicator species in ponderosa pine forests of Northeastern Oregon, USA
Kerns, Becky K.; Day, Michelle A.; Ikeda, Dana, 2020. Long-term seeding outcomes in slash piles and skid trails after conifer removal
Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana M. G.; Houtman, Rachel; Seli, Rob; Day, Michelle A., 2020. Modelling the effect of accelerated forest management on long-term wildfire activity
Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Houtman, Rachel M.; Ringo, Chris; Evers, Cody R., 2019. Cross-boundary wildfire and community exposure: A framework and application in the western U.S.
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Ager, Alan; Evers, Cody R.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K., 2019. Fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events in the western United States
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Ager, Alan; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A., 2019. Social vulnerability to large wildfires in the western USA
Ager, Alan; Lasko, Richard; Myroniuk, Viktor; Zibtsev, Sergiy; Day, Michelle A.; Usenia, Uladzimir; Bogomolov, Vadym; Kovalets, Ivan; Evers, Cody R., 2019. The wildfire problem in areas contaminated by the Chernobyl disaster
Ager, Alan; Houtman, Rachel M.; Day, Michelle A.; Ringo, Chris; Palaiologou, Palaiologos, 2019. Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface
Ager, Alan; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Ringo, Chris; Short, Karen C., 2019. Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US
Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana M. G.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Spies, Thomas A.; Bolte, John, 2018. Analyzing fine-scale spatiotemporal drivers of wildfire in a forest landscape model
Ager, Alan; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Barros, Ana M. G., 2018. Assessing transboundary wildfire exposure in the southwestern United States
Alcasena, Fermin J.; Ager, Alan; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A.; Vega-Garcia, Cristina, 2018. Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia
Kerns, Becky K.; Day, Michelle A., 2018. Prescribed fire regimes subtly alter ponderosa pine forest plant community structure
Barros, Ana M. G.; Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Spies, Thomas A., 2018. Wildfires managed for restoration enhance ecological resilience
Ager, Alan; Vogler, Kevin C.; Day, Michelle A.; Bailey, John D., 2017. Economic opportunities and trade-offs in collaborative forest landscape restoration
Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana M. G.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Day, Michelle A.; Spies, Thomas A.; Bailey, John D.; Bolte, John P., 2017. Effects of accelerated wildfire on future fire regimes and implications for the United States federal fire policy
Ager, Alan; Houtman, Rachel M.; Seli, Robert; Day, Michelle A.; Bailey, John, 2017. Integrating large wildfire simulation and forest growth modeling for restoration planning
Ager, Alan; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max, 2017. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance
Barros, Ana M. G.; Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Spies, Thomas A.; White, Eric; Pabst, Robert J.; Olsen, Keith A.; Platt, Emily; Bailey, John D.; Bolte, John P., 2017. Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA
Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Short, Karen C.; Evers, Cody R., 2016. Assessing the impacts of federal forest planning on wildfire risk-mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Vogler, Kevin, 2016. Production possibility frontiers and socioecological tradeoffs for restoration of fire adapted forests
Vogler, Kevin C.; Ager, Alan; Day, Michelle A.; Jennings, Michael; Bailey, John D., 2015. Prioritization of forest restoration projects: Tradeoffs between wildfire protection, ecological restoration and economic objectives
A map of the perimeter of a modeled extremely large fire in Southern California.

Predicting future extreme wildfire events in the western United States

Post date: June 28, 2021
Climate change studies suggest that extreme wildfires will become more frequent in the future. We investigated the prediction of extreme wildfire events - plausible but rare scenarios that describe yet to be observed fire disasters - using fire simulation methods. 
A map of the Deschutes National Forest, with the wildland-urban interface marked in red and various treatment areas marked in shades of blue.

New forest landscape model predicts how management policies affect future wildfire impacts

Post date: May 21, 2020
We integrated the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator with FSim, a large wildfire simulator, to study how management policies affect future wildfire regimes. The model leverages decades of research and development on the respective forest growth and wildfire simulation models, and their integration creates a strategic forest landscape model that can be used to examine forest fire and management policy issues on National Forests in the western United States.

National Scenario Planning Platform

Post date: November 28, 2021
The Scenario Investment Planning Platform (SIPP) is a key component of the larger Chief's Shared Steward initiative and is intended to improve investment strategies in landscape treatments across shared boundaries. The tool will help understand trade-offs and assess progress towards nationally identified priorities and targets and fills a gap in current planning by providing a way to understand how priorities such as reducing wildfire impacts to communities at the national scale leads to outcomes on the ground. Beyond using this system to examine agency priorities, scenario planning can be used to identify cross boundary opportunities and prioritize activities that are leveraging new authorizing environments to expand the scale of land treatments with stakeholders
Map of firesheds at risk

Firesheds and the Fireshed Registry

Post date: October 21, 2021
Firesheds are a way to delineate where fires ignite and are likely to, or not to, spread to communities and expose buildings. The fireshed map shows the source of exposure to fire. The fireshed registry is the geospatial portal that portrays the past, present, and future in terms of agency investments in forest and fuel management in relation to historical and predicted fire activity.   

The LSim forest landscape management model

Post date: August 04, 2020
We integrated the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator with FSim, a large wildfire simulator to study how management policies affect future wildfire regimes.  The model leverages decades of research and development on the respective forest growth and wildfire simulation models, and their integration creates a strategic forest landscape model that has a high degree of transparency in the existing user communities.  We are using the model to examine forest fire and management policy issues on national forests in the western US.
Photo: Experimental prescribed burn

Long-term restoration synergies between wildfire and forest management on fire frequent landscapes

Post date: August 04, 2020
We are using the agent-based landscape simulation model Envision to explore a wide range of forest management and future wildfire scenarios to understand how accelerated restoration programs and climate change might alter forest trajectories over time. We are particularly interested in landscape tipping points, feedbacks, and synergies between wildfire and restorative forest and fuels management. We are measuring a wide range of response variables including landscape carbon, spatial pattern and patch size of high severity fire, and resilient forest. The modeling work is being conducted with study areas in central Oregon that encompass 3 million ha of federal and private forest lands. 

Assessment of community wildfire exposure in the western United States

Post date: August 03, 2020
In this project we provide the first comprehensive assessment of where public wildlands in the western United States potentially contribute wildfire exposure to communities in the 11 western states and provide a framework for assessing cross-boundary wildfire exposure.

RMRS Science Program Areas: 
Fire, Fuel and Smoke