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Rocky Mountain Research Station

Firesheds and the Fireshed Registry

Status
Ongoing
Start Date
January, 2019

Firesheds are a way to delineate where fires ignite and are likely to, or not to, spread to communities and expose buildings. The fireshed map shows the source of exposure to fire. The fireshed registry is the geospatial portal that portrays the past, present, and future in terms of agency investments in forest and fuel management in relation to historical and predicted fire activity.   

Background Information and History

Firesheds are a way to delineate where fires ignite and are likely to, or not to, spread to communities and expose buildings. Fireshed maps are used to show the source of exposure to fire. The fireshed registry is the geospatial portal that portrays the past, present, and future in terms of agency investments in forest and fuel management in relation to historical and predicted fire activity.   

Map of firesheds at risk

Research Application

The Fireshed Registry was built as a data warehouse for the scenario planning model and stores data for simulating specific investment scenarios related to reducing wildfire risk to communities. The Registry also provides a geospatial dashboard to allow managers and specialists to view and map a vast array of data related to wildfire transmission, past and planned management, and past and predicted wildfires. The all lands geography of the Fireshed Registry makes it a useful platform for supporting shared stewardship.

Long-term Monitoring and Data

Published Scenarios

ScenarioYear RunHazardous Fuels Treatments Last Updated1Wildfires Last Updated2Building Exposure Source DataOwnership FilterVegetation Filter3Other Filter4ScalePrioritizationNotesPublished
Top 10 USFS firesheds by USFS region201920182018SILVISUSFSForested (NLCD)Manageable/ UndisturbedFireshedTotal exposure (based on landbase)Simple scenario to roughly rank firesheds without prescribing where to treat; as presented in the USFS Fireshed Investment PortalDevelopment and application of the Fireshed Registry
Top 10 USFS firesheds by state201920182018SILVISUSFSForested (NLCD)Manageable/ UndisturbedFireshedTotal exposure (based on landbase)Simple scenario to roughly rank firesheds without prescribing where to treat; as presented in the USFS Fireshed Investment PortalDevelopment and application of the Fireshed Registry
Ten-year plan to reduce risk to communities on USFS lands in the West202020192020MS FootprintsUSFSConifer (FVS forest type)Manageable/ UndisturbedProjectsTreat 80% of treatable exposure in each projectWestern U.S. only; area treated is ramped up each year rather than static; Eastern U.S. version availablePlanning for future fire: scenario analysis of an accelerated fuel reduction plan for the western United States

1Conditions on the ground based on 2014 LANDFIRE fuels were updated to reflect fuels treatments based on FACTS and the LANDFIRE disturbance layer  
2 Conditions on the ground based on 2014 LANDFIRE fuels were updated to reflect area burned by wildfire based on MTBS fire perimeters and CalFire data in California; and in the case of 2019 and 2020 wildfires on nwcg.gov and NIFC  
3 Forested was assessed based on National Land Cover data and forest type based on Forest Vegetation Simulator variants  
4 Manageable was defined as areas where mechanical fuels treatments are permitted (e.g., wilderness excluded) based on the USGS protected areas database, and updated with USFS Roadless and Nationally Designated Areas

Frequently Asked Questions about the Fireshed Registry

What are firesheds?

  • Firesheds are containers that delineate areas where fires ignite and are likely (or not) to spread to communities and expose buildings.

What is building exposure?

  • Building exposure is the likelihood and intensity of a fire in the vicinity of a building.  It is not the same as risk— risk predicts loss; exposure does not.

How were the firesheds created?

  • Starting with 79 million simulated wildfires (these simulations were done by Mark Finney at the RMRS Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory), we overlaid fire perimeters with Microsoft building footprint data and calculated the number of buildings exposed by that particular fire. That number was attached to the ignition location and smoothed to provide a map where fires are likely to start and expose buildings. We then delineated containers of about 250,000 acres based on the level of predicted exposure.

How did you choose 250,000 acres for the size of a fireshed?

  • Areas of high and low exposure appeared to be organized at this scale.  Note that the fireshed map is a nested system that contains treatment units (250 acres), project areas (25,000 acres), firesheds, and mega firesheds (1.2 million acres), all nested within each other.  The project areas were used as prioritization units in the 10-year plan since that is the scale used in NEPA planning.

What is the fireshed registry and why was it created?

  • We created the fireshed registry in response to frequent and wide-ranging questions about where the agency has been conducting forest and fuel management in relation to risk and exposure. The fireshed registry is the geospatial portal that portrays the past, present, and future in terms of agency investments in forest and fuel management in relation to historical and predicted fire activity.  The end goal is that it can be used as a tool to examine alignment between regional and forest five-year action plans in relation to existing and national investment strategies.

Is the fireshed map a risk map?

  • No. Risk maps predict loss at a particular location. The fireshed map shows the source of exposure.  We mapped the source of exposure to understand where treatments are needed to stop fire transmission from national forests to developed areas.

How does a fireshed map describe risk to individual communities?

  • In prior work we mapped exposure for all of the communities in the western US (this work is different than the fireshed registry).
  • We estimated about 500 communities are significantly exposed to fire from national forests. The national fireshed map can be paired with the community exposure map to build plans that consider strategies to protect the community and restore the surrounding forest landscape.

How do firesheds relate to scenario planning?

  • Scientists continue to develop the Scenario Planning Investment Platform (SIPP). SIPP is a modelling framework to build and analyze management scenarios. Scenario planning is widely used in science and industry to examine alternative futures. Studies suggest that organizations that examine a lot of alternative futures tend to make better decisions. The Fireshed Registry was built as a data warehouse for the scenario planning model and stores data for simulating specific investment scenarios. The Fireshed Registry provides a geospatial dashboard to allow managers and specialists to view and map a vast array of data related to wildfire transmission, past and planned management, and past and predicted wildfires. 
diagram that describes connection between fireshed registry and scenario planning

Key Personnel

Project Contact/Principal Investigator

Co-Investigator

Publications

Understory Publications

Last updated December 18, 2023
https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/rmrs/projects/firesheds