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Risk and uncertainty in decision making

January, 2015

Wildfire (photo by Tom Iraci)
Wildfire (photo by Tom Iraci)
Although wildfires are inevitable, the destruction of homes, ecosystems, and lives is not. How can land management agencies, first responders, and affected communities who face the inevitability of wildfires reduce the potential for loss? By doing what other institutions, both private and public, across sectors, have done in the face of complexity and uncertainty: turn to the principles of decision science and risk management.


In concert with the spatial risk assessment framework, the Wildfire Risk Management Team is exploring how principles of risk management, and resiliency and structured decision making can be applied to improve the effectiveness and safety of fire management.


Thompson, Matthew P. ; MacGregor, Donald G. ; Calkin, Dave E. , 2016
Thompson, Matthew P. ; Zimmerman, Tom ; Mindar, Dan ; Taber, Mary , 2016
Thompson, Matthew P. ; Dunn, Christopher ; Calkin, Dave E. , 2015
Calkin, Dave E. ; ; Finney, Mark A. ; Thompson, Matthew P. , 2014
Tillery, Anne C. ; Haas, Jessica R. ; Miller, Lara W. ; Scott, Joe H. ; Thompson, Matthew P. , 2014
Haas, Jessica R. ; Calkin, Dave E. ; Thompson, Matthew P. , 2014
Thompson, Matthew P. ; Calkin, Dave E. , 2011

Project Contact: 

Research Staff:
Christopher J. Dunn - Oregon State University