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Visualizing current and future climate boundaries of the conterminous United States: Implications for forests

Posted date: March 27, 2019
Publication Year: 
2019
Authors: Hanberry, Brice; Fraser, Jacob S.
Publication Series: 
Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Source: Forests. 10(3): 280.

Abstract

Many potential geographic information system (GIS) applications remain unrealized or not yet extended to diverse spatial and temporal scales due to the relative recency of conversion from paper maps to digitized images. Here, we applied GIS to visualize changes in the ecological boundaries of plant hardiness zones and the Köppen-Trewartha classification system between current climate (1981-2010) and future climate (2070-2099), as well as changing climate within stationary state boundaries of the conterminous United States, which provide context for the future of forests. Three climate models at Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 were variable in climate projections. The greatest departure from the current climate in plant hardiness zones, which represent the coldest days, occurred where temperatures were coldest, whereas temperatures in the southeastern United States remained relatively stable. Most (85% to 99%) of the conterminous US increased by at least one plant hardiness zone (5.6 °C). The areal extent of subtropical climate types approximately doubled, expanding into current regions of hot temperate climate types, which shifted into regions of warm temperate climate types. The northernmost tier of states may generally develop the hottest months of the southernmost tier of states; Montana’s hottest month may become hotter than Arizona’s current hottest month. We applied these results to demonstrate the large magnitude of potential shifts in forested ecosystems at the end of the century. Shifts in ecological boundaries and climate within administrative boundaries may result in mismatches between climate and ecosystems and coupled human-environment systems.

Citation

Hanberry, Brice B.; Fraser, Jacob S. 2019. Visualizing current and future climate boundaries of the conterminous United States: Implications for forests. Forests. 10(3): 280.