Traffic Surveillance
Understanding Transportation Modeling
in the Context of Forest Service Needs

Prepared by
D. A. Niemeier

Prepared for
Forest Service
San Dimas, California

August 2005

1. Introduction and Study Motivation

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service comprises 155 national forests, 20 national grasslands and 17 recreational areas with a transportation system of more than 380,000 miles of roads and over 133,000 miles of hiking, biking, motorized, and equestrian trails. Access to the forests and grasslands has improved dramatically in the past few years with much greater connectivity between state and local transportation systems and the forest transportation systems. However, with increased connectivity, have also come land use changes and even greater pressure for increased land use intensity. The land use patterns both within and on the fringe of forests and the connectivity to the transportation systems play a critical role in determining the economic vitality, livability, and sustainability of the National Forests. Decisions about land use patterns and forest uses are inextricably linked to the current and planned transportation systems.

Transportation plans have long been required as the basis for allocating federal funding, particularly for longer term urban transportation infrastructure. In order to characterize the current status of the transportation system, and to project long-term changes, urban transportation analysts rely on computer-based mathematical travel demand models to forecast levels of vehicular traffic. The typical urban models incorporate projected regional demographic and economic changes, characteristics of the region's transportation system, and proposed changes in transportation facilities and operating policies, as well as assumptions about the factors influencing decisions about when, where, and how people will make trips.

The purpose of this study is to examine the types of transportation modeling frameworks specific to the management of National Forest System Lands that can incorporate the ability to develop, test, and refine transportation policies and operate and maintain a transportation system that meets the long-term land use and transportation goals of the Forest Service.

Continuity with FS Chief and USDA Strategic Plan

In May 2003, the Government Accounting Office (GAO) in a report to the Subcommittee on Forests and Forest Health and the Committee on Resources noted that the Forest Service often lacked clear linkages between budget and work plan systems and its strategic goals and performance objectives. In this section, the linkages between the goals of this study and key strategic objectives and performance goals are discussed.

In April of 2003, the Forest Service Chief, Dale Bosworth, identified four major threats to the Forest Service conservation mission: increased fire danger; the spread of invasive species; loss of open space, and unmanaged recreation, particularly increased recreational travel by off-highway vehicles (USDA Forest Service, 2004). The USDA Strategic Plan identified six goals, and incorporates actions to resolve the four major threats. Along with the six goals are associated performance measures, aimed at setting a common 5-year direction toward addressing the most important issues. In part, the linking of strategic goals to performance objectives derives from interest in government accountability and performance monitoring that has resulted in a number of significant legislative initiatives over the past ten years. In particular, the 1993 Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) mandated that federal agencies account for expenditures by focusing on program products as opposed to maintaining a list of completed projects. In terms of transportation, the Intermodal Surface Transportation Act (ISTEA) and the subsequent Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) also addressed the accountability of state transportation agencies by connecting system improvements to clearly identified planning outcomes.

The six goals identified in the 2004-2008 Forest Service Strategic Plan were:

• Reduce the risk from catastrophic wildland fire: Restore the health of the Nation's forests and grasslands to increase resilience to the effects of wildland fire;
  
  
• Reduce the impacts from invasive species: Restore the health of the Nation's forests and grasslands to be resilient to the effects of invasive insects, pathogens, plants, and pests;
  
  
• Provide outdoor recreation opportunities: Provide high-quality outdoor recreational opportunities on forests and grasslands, while sustaining natural resources, to meet the Nation's recreation demands;
  
  
• Help meet energy resource needs: Contribute to meeting the Nation's need for energy;
  
  
• Improve watershed condition: Increase the number of forest and grassland watersheds that are in fully functional hydrologic condition, and
  
  
• Mission related work in addition to that which supports the agency goals: Conduct research and other mission-related work to fulfill statutory stewardship and assistance requirements.

It is the third goal to which this study is most closely aligned. This goal acknowledges the increased pressures being placed on public lands as populations grow and identifies a need for good management practices as a way of reducing the recreational impacts on natural resources. In particular, the management of off-highway vehicle access and use on roads within the National Forest System is considered especially critical.

As part of the Strategic Plan, two objectives and associated performance measures have been identified for Goal 3:

• Objective 1: Improve public access to National Forest System land and water and provide opportunities for outdoor health-enhancing activities.
  
  
Performance Measures:


• Maintain proportion of miles and percent of trail network maintained to standard;
  
  
• Reduce three-year average number of fatalities on passenger car road network;
  
  
• Increase the number and percent of facilities maintained to standard, and
  
  
• Increase the number and percent of facilities and sites that meet accessibility standards.
  
  
• Objective 2: Improve the management of off-highway vehicle use to protect natural resources, promote safety of all users, and minimize conflicts among various uses through the collaborative development and implementation of locally-based travel management plans.
  
  
Performance Measures:


• Increase the percent of National Forest System lands covered by travel management implementation plans.

To accomplish the above objectives, the Forest Service has proposed to undertake a number of different tasks (Table 1). As the table illustrates, this study is relevant to four of seven tasks defined for achieving goals noted in the Forest Service Strategic Plan.

Table 1. Tasks Supporting Forest Service Strategic Plan Goals

Tasks	Relevant to this Study
1. Research national demand for and capacity trends of the Nation's supply of outdoor recreation and tourism opportunities by public and private providers.	•
2. Continue facility master planning to determine the environmentally and financially sustainable mix of facilities that best meets customer demand	•
3. Maintain public access to National Forest System land and water and ensure that access and travel management direction identifies all areas available for off-highway vehicle use and that the direction is consistent with applicable Forest Plans	•
4. Provide tourism and marketing technical assistance to the tourism industry and other partners through Recreation One-Stop and the National Recreation Reservation Service Interagency Office
5. Increase the number of rural communities, organizations, and enterprises actively participating with the Forest Service and other natural resource agencies to provide outdoor recreation opportunities
6. Deliver substantial recreation opportunities by administering recreation special use permits in a timely manner
7. Encourage healthy outdoor lifestyles through conservation education and collaboration with State and local recreation and tourism planners	•
8. Reduce three-year average number of fatalities on passenger car road network.	•

The Strategic Plan also acknowledges there are factors out of the control of the Forest Service that will impact progress toward Goal 3. These factors include the effects of population growth and a changing regulatory environment. Population growth is likely to have both an immediate and long-term profound impact on the management of Forest Service lands.

In developing a transportation modeling platform for the Forest Service, it's critical to identify both short- and long-term needs and the types of planning and policy issues that might arise. At the fiscal year 2005 National Roads Meeting, a small survey of perceived modeling priorities was taken. The results are shown in Figure 1. The top priorities identified as important included estimating traffic on Highway Safety Act (HSA) and NFS roads and for OHV. Nearly as important as the ability to estimate traffic was the need to be able to assess the inter-relationship between land use and transportation. Although needs such as supporting environmental documentation, analyzing traffic operations and supporting scenario assessment were currently perceived as lower in priority, a number of respondents also noted these as important.

Figure 1. Priorities Identified by National Roads Meeting Respondents

Synthesizing the tasks identified under Goal 3 and the informational needs reported by the forest service managers (Table 2), it is clear most of the identified needs are directly relevant to one or more of the Goal 3 tasks.

Table 2. Relationship of Needs to Goal 3 Tasks

Prioritized i Needs Identified by Forest Service	Goal 3 Tasks
	1	2	3	4
Estimate traffic on HSA roads	•	•	•
Analyze the effects of transportation on land use	•	•		•
Estimate traffic on all NFSRs	•	•	•
Analyze the effects of land use on transportation	•	•		•
Estimate OHV traffic	•	•	•
Analyze short- and long-term policies	•	•	•	•
Analyze all modes of travel	•	•		•
Analyze environmental effects		•	•
Support quality of service reporting	•			•
Analyze traffic operations
Support scenario assessment	•	•	•	•
Other