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    Author(s): John F. Dwyer
    Date: 1994
    Source: Gen.Tech. Rep. RM-GTR-252. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 58 p.
    Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station
    PDF: View PDF  (3.13 MB)

    Description

    The fastest growth in outdoor recreation participation is projected for activities that are popular with older adults, and the slowest growth for those activities popular with younger adults. Nationally, changing age distribution is the main reason for change in participation; but, in some areas of the U.S., changing racial and ethnic structure and urban residence also are very important. Cohort component projection models estimate that participants be older and will include more racial and ethnic minorities, with minorities a substantial portion of increases in participants. Changes in participants will be especially great in areas where there will be sizable growth in the number of racial and ethnic minority individuals and older Americans - such as in and near cities. Although there is limited information on outdoor recreation participation trends, there is some indication of declining participation rates in some activities, for age and racial and ethnic groups during the 1980s. If these persist, they may slow increases in the growth of participants. Participation rates for racial and ethnic minorities and for older adults may increase, thereby increasing the number of participants as well as the proportion of racial and ethnic minorities and older adults among participants. Outdoor recreation managers may face reduced growth in the number of customers, increased customer diversity (older, more racial and ethnic minorities, more urban), and changing demands for activities, the design of settings and facilities, resource management, visitor programs, fees, communication between managers and users, information and marketing, staffing, and training. Researchers can explore the use of cohort component projection models and other approaches to predicting recreation behavior, to analyze ongoing trends, and to generate better data for use in predictive models. Research is needed to develop guidelines for plans and programs to meet the needs of customers who are increasingly older, urban, and more racially and ethnically diverse.

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    Citation

    Dwyer, John F. 1994. Customer diversiy and the future demand for outdoor recreation. Gen.Tech. Rep. RM-GTR-252. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 58 p.

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    Keywords

    outdoor recreation, demand, forecast, trends, racial, ethnic, urban, age, RPA, assessment

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