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An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projectionsAuthor(s): Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith
Source: Environmental Science and Policy. 3: 73-82.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
PDF: Download Publication (282.24 KB)
DescriptionEstimates of uncertainty are presented for projections of forest carbon inventory and average annual net carbon flux on private timberland in the US using the model FORCARB. Uncertainty in carbon inventory was approximately ±9% (2000 million metric tons) of the estimated median in the year 2000, rising to 11% (2800 million metric tons) in projection year 2040, with this range covering 95% of the distribution. Relative uncertainties about net flux were higher and more variable than relative uncertainty estimates of carbon inventory. Results indicated that relatively high correlations among projected carbon budgets for the regional forest types led to greater total uncertainty than under assumptions of independence among types, indicating that an accurate portrayal of correlations is important.
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CitationHeath, Linda S.; Smith, James E. 2000. An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projections. Environmental Science and Policy. 3: 73-82.
Keywordsforest carbon model, FORCARB, United States, uncertainty analysis, carbon sequestration
- Managed forest carbon estimates for the US greenhouse gas inventory, 1990-2008
- Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass
- Forest carbon benefits, costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States
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