Skip to Main Content
Assessing uncertainty in mechanistic modelsAuthor(s): Edwin J. Green; David W. MacFarlane; Harry T. Valentine
Source: In: Hansen, Mark; Burk, Tom, eds. Integrated tools for natural resources inventories in the 21st century. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-212. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station. 501-506.
Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)
Station: North Central Research Station
PDF: View PDF (447.59 KB)
DescriptionConcern over potential global change has led to increased interest in the use of mechanistic models for predicting forest growth. The rationale for this interest is that empirical models may be of limited usefulness if environmental conditions change. Intuitively, we expect that mechanistic models, grounded as far as possible in an understanding of the biology of tree growth, may be more useful in an altered environment. Unfortunately, such models often produce only point estimates, with no associated credible or confidence intervals. The Bayesian synthesis (BSyn) method provides a solution to this dilemma. We present a summary of the BSyn, and the results of an application of BSyn to PIPESTEM, mechanistic model of forest growth calibrated for loblolly pine.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationGreen, Edwin J.; MacFarlane, David W.; Valentine, Harry T. 2000. Assessing uncertainty in mechanistic models. In: Hansen, Mark; Burk, Tom, eds. Integrated tools for natural resources inventories in the 21st century. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-212. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station. 501-506.
- Applying ecological insights to increase productivity in tropical plantations
- Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate
- Genomic and physiological approaches to advancing forest tree improvement
XML: View XML