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    Author(s): Robert M. Scheller; David J. Mladenoff
    Date: 2008
    Source: Climate Research. 36: 191-202.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Northern Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (658.46 KB)

    Description

    The reproductive success, growth, and mortality rates of tree species in the northern United States will be differentially affected by projected climate change over the next century. As a consequence, the spatial distributions of tree species will expand or contract at differential rates. In addition, human fragmentation of the landscape may limit effective seed dispersal, and inter-specific competition may limit the migration of climate-adapted species, restraining the rate of tree species migration. If the northward migration of tree species adapted to a warmer climate lags behind the rate of climatic change, overall growth rates and aboveground biomass of northern forests may be significantly reduced relative to their potential. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, that simulates tree species establishment, growth, mortality, succession, and disturbance.

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    Citation

    Scheller, Robert M.; Mladenoff, David J. 2008. Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA. Climate Research. 36: 191-202.

    Keywords

    climate change, forest fragmentation, interspecific competition, carbon storage, LANDIS-II, tree species range expansion, tree species migration

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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/19912