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Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative


James S. Clark
Steven R. Carpenter
Mary Barber
Scott Collins
Andy Dobson
Jonathan A. Foley
David M. Lodge
Mercedes Pascual
Roger Pielke
William Pizer
Cathy Pringle
Walter V. Reid
Kenneth A. Rose
Osvaldo Sala
William H. Schlesinger
Diana H. Wall



Publication type:

Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Primary Station(s):

Southern Research Station


Science 293: 657-660


Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controis on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.


Clark, James S.; Carpenter, Steven R.; Barber, Mary; Collins, Scott; Dobson, Andy; Foley, Jonathan A.; Lodge, David M.; Pascual, Mercedes; Pielke, Roger, Jr.; Pizer, William; Pringle, Cathy; Reid, Walter V.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Sala, Osvaldo; Schlesinger, William H.; Wall, Diana H.; Wear, David. 2001. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative. Science 293: 657-660

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