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    Author(s): Donald F. Flora; Wendy J. McGInnls
    Date: 1992
    Source: Res. Pap. PNW-RP-445. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 15 p
    Publication Series: Research Paper (RP)
    Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (809 KB)

    Description

    Several recently emplaced and potential Northwest timber policies are causing considerable market turbulence. Estimated were price and volume changes induced by three supply-side policies (a state-log export embargo, forest replanning, and spotted owl reservations) and the demand slide of 1990-91. Impacts were gauged separately and together by using a four-sector model encompassing interactions between Pacific Rim and onshore markets and between logs and lumber. Log prices are expected to rise markedly despite the industry recession. Shipments onshore and abroad are declining, and our analysis offers little encouragement for stability. The log-lumber cost-price squeeze will not abate soon, and the capacity of the region to supply wood products demands onshore and abroad will diminish markedly, although by less than reductions in planned harvests would suggest.

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    Citation

    Flora, Donald F.; McGInnls, Wendy J. 1992. Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-445. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 15 p

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    Keywords

    Markets (external), supply and demand (forest products), trade (Pacific Rim), log exports, lumber exports, spotted owl, forest planning

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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/20560