Sequential use of simulation and optimization in analysis and planning

Management activities are analyzed at landscape scales employing both simulation and optimization. SIMPPLLE, a stochastic simulation modeling system, is initially applied to assess the risks associated with a specific natural process occurring on the current landscape without management treatments, but with fire suppression. These simulation results are input into MAGIS, an optimization modeling system, for scheduling activities that reduce these risks and address other management objectives. The derived treatment schedules are utilized in additional SIMPPLLE simulations to examine the changes in risks and other natural processes. Treatment effects are quantified as changes in the predicted extent and frequency of occurrence of a specific natural process and the resulting economic benefits. An application involving the analysis of fuel treatments applied over time and space to reduce wildfire risks is presented to illustrate this modeling framework that utilizes the strengths of both simulation and optimization.