Skip to Main Content
Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra Nevada of CaliforniaAuthor(s): Jon C. Regelbrugge
Source: Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra Nevada of California. Int. J. Wildland Fire 3(3): 139-148
Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication
PDF: View PDF (128 KB)
DescriptionAbstract. We modeled tree mortality occurring two years following wildfire in Pinus ponderosa forests using data from 1275 trees in 25 stands burned during the 1987 Stanislaus Complex fires. We used logistic regression analysis to develop models relating the probability of wildfire-induced mortality with tree size and fire severity for Pinus ponderosa, Calocedrus decurrens, Quercus chrysolepis, and Q. kelloggii. One set of models predicts mortality probability as a function of DBH and height of stem-bark char, a second set of models uses relative char height (height of stem-bark char as a proportion of tree height) as the predictor. Probability of mortality increased with increasing height of stem-bark char and decreased with increasing tree DBH and height. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves indicated that both sets of models perform well for all species, with 83 to 96 percent concordance between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. The models can be used to predict the probability of post-wildfire mortality of four tree species common in Pinus ponderosa forests in the central Sierra Nevada of California.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationConard, Susan G.; Regelbrugge, Jon C. 1993. Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra Nevada of California. Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra Nevada of California. Int. J. Wildland Fire 3(3): 139-148
KeywordsFire effects, Logistic regression, Ponderosa pine, Wildfire
- Susceptibility of ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa (Dougl. Ex Laws.), to mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, attack in uneven-aged stands in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming USA
- Predicting mortality of ponderosa pine regeneration after prescribed fire in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA
- Bark beetle-caused mortality in a drought-affected ponderosa pine landscape in Arizona, USA
XML: View XML