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A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economicsAuthor(s): Geoffrey H. Donovan; Douglas B. Rideout
Source: Forest Science. 49(2): 318-323
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
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DescriptionThe Cost plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model provides the theoretical foundation for wildland fire economics and provides the basis for the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS). The C+NVC model is based on the earlier least Cost plus Loss model (LC+L) expressed by Sparhawk (1925). Mathematical and graphical analysis of the LC+L model illustrates two errors in model formulation. First, suppression is incorrectly modeled as a model output. Second, suppression and primary protection are incorrectly modeled as negatively correlated. These errors are shown to be perpetuated by the contemporary C+NVC model and to have serious implications for the model's capacity to correctly identify the most efficient level of fire management expenditure. A corrected graphical representation of the C+NVC model is presented, which allows the most efficient level of fire management expenditure to be correctly identified.
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CitationDonovan, Geoffrey H.; Rideout, Douglas B. 2003. A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economics. Forest Science. 49(2): 318-323
KeywordsEconomics, fire, cost plus net value change
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