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Assessing the accuracy of wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) fire size and suppression cost estimates.Author(s): Geoffrey H. Donovan; Peter Noordijk
Source: Journal of Forestry. January/February: 10-13
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
PDF: Download Publication (214 KB)
DescriptionTo determine the optimal suppression strategy for escaped wildfires, federal land managers are requiredto conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA). As part of the WFSA process, fire managers estimate final fire size and suppression costs. Estimates from 58 WFSAs conducted during the 2002 fire season are compared to actual outcomes. Results indicate that estimates of fire size and suppression costs are systematically biased. Modifications to the WFSA process are suggested to address these problems.
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CitationDonovan, Geoffrey H.; Noordijk, Peter. 2005. Assessing the accuracy of wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) fire size and suppression cost estimates. Journal of Forestry. January/February: 10-13
KeywordsWFSA, wildfire, economics, suppression, probability
- Economic cost of initial attack and large-fire suppression
- Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs
- Prediction errors in wildland fire situation analyses.
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