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  1. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

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    Author(s): Mark W. Schwartz; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Raymond J. O'Connor; Raymond J. O'Connor
    Date: 2006
    Source: Ecology. 87(7): 1611-1615.
    Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication
    PDF: Download Publication  (92.07 KB)

    Description

    Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in overpredicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.

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    Citation

    Schwartz, Mark W.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Matthews, Stephen N.; O''Connor, Raymond J. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology. 87(7): 1611-1615.

    Keywords

    climate and environmental models, climate change, distribution breadth, eastern United States, endemic, extinction, prediction uncertainty, regression tree, vulnerability

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