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    Author(s): Gwenlyn M. Busby
    Date: 2006
    Source: Res. Note PNW-RN-554. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 14 p
    Publication Series: Research Note (RN)
    Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (671 KB)

    Description

    Forest-land managers use price data and market analysis to form expectations and make informed management decisions. There is an abundance of price data for sawtimber, but for nonsawtimber, the availability of price data is limited. This constrains the ability of forest-land managers to form reasonable price expectations for stands that contain both sawtimber and nonsawtimber. In this paper, I show that export chip prices are a reasonable proxy for nonsawtimber prices in the Pacific Northwest. This conclusion is supported by evidence of arbitrage between the chip export market and three domestic markets in the Pacific Northwest. As to the chip export market in general, I observed increasing chip prices from 1968 through 1995, a structural break in 1995 after which point we observe declining prices. I also found evidence of an inverse relationship between chip price and lumber production.

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    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Busby, Gwenlyn M. 2006. Export chip prices as a proxy for nonsawtimber prices in the Pacific Northwest. Res. Note PNW-RN-554. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 14 p

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    Keywords

    Wood chips, nonsawtimber, chip prices, residue prices

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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/25263