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Export chip prices as a proxy for nonsawtimber prices in the Pacific Northwest.Author(s): Gwenlyn M. Busby
Source: Res. Note PNW-RN-554. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 14 p
Publication Series: Research Note (RN)
Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
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DescriptionForest-land managers use price data and market analysis to form expectations and make informed management decisions. There is an abundance of price data for sawtimber, but for nonsawtimber, the availability of price data is limited. This constrains the ability of forest-land managers to form reasonable price expectations for stands that contain both sawtimber and nonsawtimber. In this paper, I show that export chip prices are a reasonable proxy for nonsawtimber prices in the Pacific Northwest. This conclusion is supported by evidence of arbitrage between the chip export market and three domestic markets in the Pacific Northwest. As to the chip export market in general, I observed increasing chip prices from 1968 through 1995, a structural break in 1995 after which point we observe declining prices. I also found evidence of an inverse relationship between chip price and lumber production.
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CitationBusby, Gwenlyn M. 2006. Export chip prices as a proxy for nonsawtimber prices in the Pacific Northwest. Res. Note PNW-RN-554. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 14 p
KeywordsWood chips, nonsawtimber, chip prices, residue prices
- Chip prices as a proxy for nonsawtimber prices in the Pacific Northwest.
- Stumpage prices, volume sold, and volumes harvested from the National Forests of the Pacific Northwest Region, 1984 to 1996.
- The rise and fall of the Pacific Northwest log export market.
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