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Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.Author(s): Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung Chen
Source: Climate Research. 15: 195-205
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
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DescriptionA multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic forest sector model and results are summarized in response functions that may be used instead of rerunning the model as improved or altered biological response scenarios arise. The response functions are used to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sector. We find that aggregate impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively small but that producers income and future welfare 30 to 40 yr in the future are most at risk. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts, including interregional migration of production, substitution in consumption, and altered stand management.
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CitationMcCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, Darius M.; Alig, Ralph J.; Burton, Diana; Chen, Chi-Chung. 2000. Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator. Climate Research. 15: 195-205
Keywordsclimate change, US forest, sector analysis, response function
- Chapter 14: The impacts of climate change on forestry
- Mitigating greenhouse gases: the importance of land base interactions between forests, agriculture, and residential development in the face of changes in bioenergy and carbon prices
- Developing detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) narratives for the Global Forest Sector
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