Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Carolyn Hull Sieg; Joel D. McMillin; James F. Fowler; Kurt K. Allen; Jose F. Negron; Linda L. Wadleigh; John A. Anhold; Ken E. Gibson
    Date: 2006
    Source: Forest Science. 52(6): 718-728.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (427.73 KB)

    Description

    Numerous wildfires in recent years have highlighted managers' needs for reliable tools to predict postfire mortality of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) trees. General applicability of existing mortality models is uncertain, as researchers have used different sets of variables. We quantified tree attributes, crown and bole fire damage, ground fire severity, and insect presence from a total of 5,083 trees in four 2000 wildfires in four Intermountain states. Crown scorch (percentage) and consumption (percentage) volume collectively accounted for the majority of predictive capacity in all four individual models and in the pooled four-site model. The addition of tree diameter and presence of Ips beetles in the pooled model slightly improved predictive power. Four other statistically significant variables added little to the pooled model's predictive ability. The pooled model correctly classified 3-year postfire mortality of 89.9% of the trees and had a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.96. In the external validation step, the model correctly classified 3-year postfire mortality of 96% of 1,361 trees in a 2001 wildfire. Our results and a number of previous studies suggest that a two-variable model using percentage crown scorch volume and crown consumed volume will have applicability beyond the Intermountain West.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Sieg, Carolyn Hull; McMillin, Joel D.; Fowler, James F.; Allen, Kurt K.; Negron, Jose F.; Wadleigh, Linda L.; Anhold, John A.; Gibson, Ken E. 2006. Best predictors for postfire mortality of ponderosa pine trees in the Intermountain West. Forest Science. 52(6): 718-728.

    Keywords

    Pinus ponderosa, logistic regression, Arizona, Colorado, South Dakota, Montana, wildfire, bark beetles or Scolytinae, modeling

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/26799