Skip to Main Content
Landscape-scale prediction of hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae (Homoptera: Adelgidae), infestation in the Southern Appalachian MountainsAuthor(s): F.H. Koch; H.M. Cheshire; H.A. Devine
Source: Environ. Entomol., Vol. 35(5): 1313-1323
Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication
PDF: View PDF (1.57 MB)
DescriptionAfter causing substantial mortality in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States, the hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae Annand (Homoptera: Adelgidae), has recently invaded the southern Appalachian region. Although general estimates of regional spread exist, the landscape level dynamics of A. tsugae invasion are poorly understood particularly factors predicting where the pest is likely to first infest a landscape. We examined first-year infestation locations from Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the Blue Ridge Parkway to identify possible factors. For 84 infested and 67 uninfested sites, we calculated values for a suite of variables using a geographic information system. After identifying signifcant variables, we applied four statistical techniques discriminant analysis, k-nearest neighbor analysis, logistic regression, and decision trees into derive classification functions separating the infested and uninfested groups. We used the resulting functions to generate maps of A. tsugae infestation risk in the Great Smoky Mountains. Three proximity variables (distance to the closest stream, trail, and road) appeared in all four classification functions, which performed well in terms of error rate. Discriminant analysis was the most accurate and efficient technique, but logistic regression best balanced accuracy, efficiency, and ease of use. Our results suggest that roads, major trails, and riparian corridors provide connectivity enabling long-distance dispersal of A. tsugae, probably by humans or birds. The derived classification functions can yield A. tsugae infestation risk maps for elsewhere in the southern Appalachian region, allowing forest managers to better target control efforts.
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationKoch, F.H.; Cheshire, H.M.; Devine, H.A. 2006. Landscape-scale prediction of hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae (Homoptera: Adelgidae), infestation in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Environ. Entomol., Vol. 35(5): 1313-1323
Keywordshemlock woolly adelgid, southern appalachians, dispersal, prediction, landscape connectivity
- Impacts of hemlock decline and ecological considerations for hemlock stand restoration following hemlock woolly adelgid outbreaks
- Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Pest Alert)
- Elongate Hemlock Scale
XML: View XML