Skip to Main Content
Predicting movement of nursery hosts using a linear network modelAuthor(s): Steve McKelvey; Frank Koch; Bill Smith
Source: In: Frankel, Susan J.; Kliejunas, John T.; Palmieri, Katharine M., tech. coords. 2008. Proceedings of the sudden oak death third science symposium. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-214. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. pp. 249-256
Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)
Station: Pacific Southwest Research Station
PDF: View PDF (1.3 MB)
DescriptionThere is widespread concern among scientists and land managers that Phytophthora ramorum may be accidentally introduced into oak-dominated eastern U.S. forests through the transfer of the pathogen from infected nursery plants to susceptible understory forest species (for example, Rhododendron spp.) at the forest-urban interface. Inspection programs can be made more efficient by identifying locations throughout the U.S. that are most likely to receive infected nursery stock. e develop a spatial network model framework utilizing potential interstate nursery stock movements on a bipartite network, adopting a Bayesian approach to model probabilities of transmission of P. ramorum from entry to destination nodes within the network. As the goal of this paper is to present a general model framework, no specific risk analysis is presented. In the face of future discoveries of P. ramorum infections in the eastern U.S., instances of models from this framework can be used to help identify sites with a high risk of infection based on observed infection patterns.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationMcKelvey, Steve; Koch, Frank; Smith, Bill. 2008. Predicting movement of nursery hosts using a linear network model. In: Frankel, Susan J.; Kliejunas, John T.; Palmieri, Katharine M., tech. coords. 2008. Proceedings of the sudden oak death third science symposium. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-214. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. pp. 249-256
KeywordsBayesian analysis, Phytophthora ramorum, nursery shipments, transportation network
- Sudden oak death: recent developments on trees in Europe
- Contingency planning for Phytophthora ramorum outbreaks: progress report work package 7, EU RAPRA project
- Assessment of potential economic and environmental impacts caused by Phytophthora ramorum in Europe
XML: View XML