Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): David Ray; Chad Keyser; Robert Seymour; John Brissette
    Date: 2008
    Source: In: Havis, Robert N.; Crookston, Nicholas L., comps. 2008. Third Forest Vegetation Simulator Conference; 2007 February 13–15; Fort Collins, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-54. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 186-200
    Publication Series: Proceedings (P)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (1 MB)

    Description

    Forest managers are increasingly called upon to provide long-term predictions of forest development. The dynamics of regeneration establishment, survival and subsequent recruitment of established seedlings to larger size classes is a critical component of these forecasts, yet remains a weak link in available models. To test the reliability of FVS-NE for simulating sapling (stems ≥ 0.5 in dbh) recruitment dynamics in stands subject to repeated partial harvests, we compared model predictions with long-term observations (n = 729 plots/5-yr interval combinations) from the Penobscot Experimental Forest (PEF) in central Maine. Two different parameterizations of FVS-NE were tested; the currently available production code and a yet to be released beta version that contains a number of structural changes. Because neither parameterization has a full-establishment model, regeneration composition and densities were from the research plots. Our analyses indicated that predicted rates of sapling recruitment were biased according to both models, averaging 47 percent (production) and 206 percent (beta) of the observed rate at the PEF (1.71 ± 0.25 ft2/ac/5-yr). Mortality rates among the newly recruited saplings were overestimated by both models, and species composition of the survivors did not closely match the observations. Correlation analysis on the residuals from the beta version pointed to a strong link between the overestimation of stems recruited to the sapling size class and the density of large regeneration input to the model. Limiting the density of regeneration entering the simulation to ≤1,800 TPA (~2 stems/milacre plot) largely eliminated the prediction bias, yet only modestly improved model accuracy (R2 0.398 vs. 0.341).

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Ray, David; Keyser, Chad; Seymour, Robert; Brissette, John. 2008. Predicting the recruitment of established regeneration into the sapling size class following partial cutting in the Acadian Forest Region: Using long-term observations to assess the performance of FVS-NE. In: Havis, Robert N.; Crookston, Nicholas L., comps. 2008. Third Forest Vegetation Simulator Conference; 2007 February 13–15; Fort Collins, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-54. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 186-200

    Keywords

    forest management, forest planning, growth and yield, vegetation dynamics, habitat modeling, carbon inventory, prognosis model, landscape dynamics, fire, fuels, climate change, economics, forest health

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/30980