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Wilderness recreation participation: Projections for the next half centuryAuthor(s): J. M. Bowker; D. Murphy; H. K. Cordell; D. B. K. English; J. C. Bergstrom; C. M. Starbuck; C. J. Betz; G. T. Green; P. Reed
Source: In: Watson, Alan; Sproull, Janet; Dean, Liese, comps. Science and stewardship to protect and sustain wilderness values: Eighth World Wilderness Congress symposium; September 30-October 6, 2005; Anchorage, AK. Proceedings RMRS-P-49. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 367-373
Publication Series: Proceedings (P)
Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
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DescriptionThis paper explores the influence of demographic and spatial variables on individual participation in wildland area recreation. Data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE) are combined with GIS-based distance measures to develop nonlinear regression models used to predict both participation and the number of days of participation in wilderness and primitive area recreation. The estimated models corroborate previous findings indicating that race (black), ethnicity (Hispanic), immigrant status, age, and urban dwelling are negatively correlated with wildland visitation; while income, gender (male), and education positively affect wildland recreation participation and use. The presence of a distance or proximity factor mitigates some of the influence of race and ethnicity. The results of the cross-sectional models are combined with U.S. Census (2004) projections of total population, changes in population characteristics, and with estimates of current National Forest Wilderness visitation estimates to give some insight into pressure that might be expected on the nation’s designated Wilderness during the next half century. Results generally indicate that per capita participation and visitation rates will decline over time as society changes. Total Wilderness participation and visitation will, however, increase but at a rate less than population growth.
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CitationBowker, J. M.; Murphy, D.; Cordell, H. K.; English, D. B. K.; Bergstrom, J. C.; Starbuck, C. M.; Betz, C. J.; Green, G. T.; Reed, P. 2007. Wilderness recreation participation: Projections for the next half century. In: Watson, Alan; Sproull, Janet; Dean, Liese, comps. Science and stewardship to protect and sustain wilderness values: Eighth World Wilderness Congress symposium; September 30-October 6, 2005; Anchorage, AK. Proceedings RMRS-P-49. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 367-373
Keywordswilderness, biodiversity, protected areas, economics, subsistence, tourism, traditional knowledge, community involvement, policy, stewardship, education, spiritual values
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