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    Author(s): Paul G. Scowcroft
    Date: 1970
    Source: Res. Note PSW-RN-201. Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 6 p
    Publication Series: Research Note (RN)
    Station: Pacific Southwest Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (865 KB)

    Description

    Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For probability forecasting to be used operationally, fire weather forecasters will need help in the necessary computations and some decision criteria for planning.

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    Citation

    Scowcroft, Paul G. 1970. Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial. Res. Note PSW-RN-201. Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 6 p

    Keywords

    fire weather, weather forecasting, mathematical expectation

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