Skip to Main Content
Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack successAuthor(s): Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; William J. Riley; Tadashi J. Moody; Clara Simon de Blas; Katharine Hayhoe; Max Mortiz; Scott Stephens; Margaret Torn
Source: Climatic Change. 87(Supplement 1): S251-S264
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
PDF: Download Publication (1.9 MB)
DescriptionThis study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, and Los Angele areas. However at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentation to existing firefighting resource might be sufficient to compensate for climate-induced change in wildland fire outcomes.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationFried, Jeremy S.; Gilless, J. Keith; Riley, William J.; Moody, Tadashi J.; de Blas, Clara Simon; Hayhoe, Katharine; Mortiz, Max; Stephens, Scott; Torn, Margaret. 2008. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success. Climatic Change. 87(Supplement 1): S251-S264
- Concepts for Future Large Fire Modeling
- Fanning the flames: climate change stacks odds against fire suppression.
- Wildfire, research, and a climate station
XML: View XML