Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

    Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; William J. Riley; Tadashi J. Moody; Clara Simon de Blas; Katharine Hayhoe; Max Mortiz; Scott Stephens; Margaret Torn
    Date: 2008
    Source: Climatic Change. 87(Supplement 1): S251-S264
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    PDF: Download Publication  (1.9 MB)

    Description

    This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, and Los Angele areas. However at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentation to existing firefighting resource might be sufficient to compensate for climate-induced change in wildland fire outcomes.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to pnw_pnwpubs@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Fried, Jeremy S.; Gilless, J. Keith; Riley, William J.; Moody, Tadashi J.; de Blas, Clara Simon; Hayhoe, Katharine; Mortiz, Max; Stephens, Scott; Torn, Margaret. 2008. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success. Climatic Change. 87(Supplement 1): S251-S264

    Related Search

    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/33147