Wildfire suppression cost forecasts from the US Forest ServiceAuthor(s): Karen L. Abt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Krista M. Gebert
Source: Journal of Forestry, Volume 107, Number 4, June 2009 , pp. 173-178(6)
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Southern Research Station
PDF: View PDF (455.44 KB)
The US Forest Service and other land-management agencies seek better tools for nticipating future expenditures for wildfire suppression. We developed regression models for forecasting US Forest Service suppression spending at 1-, 2-, and 3-year lead times. We compared these models to another readily available forecast model, the 10-year moving average model, and found that the regression models do a better job of forecasting the expenditures for all three time horizons. When evaluated against the historical data, our models were particularly better at forecasting the more recent years (2000 –2007) than the less sophisticated models. The regression models also allowed us to generate, using simulation methods, forecast statistics such as the means, medians, and confidence intervals of costs. These additional statistics provide policymakers, wildfire managers, and planners more information than a single forecast value.
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
CitationAbt, Karen L.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Gebert, Krista M. 2009. Wildfire suppression cost forecasts from the US Forest Service. Journal of Forestry: 173-179
Keywordsexpenditures, budget, wildland fire management
- Suppression cost forecasts in advance of wildfire seasons
- Spatially explicit forecasts of large wildland fire probability and suppression costs for California
- The effect of newspaper coverage and political pressure on wildfire suppression costs
XML: View XML